Trat FC 1-1 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trat FC vs Sukhothai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Trat FC host Sukhothai FC at Trat Provincial Central Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 February 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Trat FC have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Trat FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Trat FC have posted 3W 3D 3L at Trat Provincial Central Stadium — 1.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sukhothai FC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Trat FC) versus 1.40 (Sukhothai FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Trat FC register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Sukhothai FC in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Trat FC have won 0, Sukhothai FC 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Trat FC in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sukhothai FC in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trat FC 60% and Sukhothai FC 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Trat FC 73% | Sukhothai FC 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trat FC 1.53 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trat FC attack 0.882 / defence 1.212 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.957 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.605 / away 1.340. Data: 15 Trat FC games / 45 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trat FC 36% | Draw 26% | Sukhothai FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Trat FC 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Sukhothai FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sukhothai FC at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Trat FC 67% | Sukhothai FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trat FC vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Trat Provincial Central Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Feb 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trat FC 36% | Draw 26% | Sukhothai FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Trat FC 1.53 / Sukhothai FC 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Trat FC attack 0.882 / def 1.212 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.957 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.605 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Trat FC xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Sukhothai FC xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trat FC vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Trat FC vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Trat Provincial Central Stadium.
What was the final score in Trat FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Trat FC 1 - 1 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Trat FC vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Trat Provincial Central Stadium.
What competition is Trat FC vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Trat FC vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Trat FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Trat FC a 36% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trat FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Trat FC and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Trat FC vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trat FC and Sukhothai FC?
Record (1 meetings): Trat FC 0W | Draws 1 | Sukhothai FC 0W.
What form are Trat FC and Sukhothai FC in?
Trat FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Trat FC's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Sukhothai FC's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Sukhothai FC's attack versus Trat FC's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
36%
2.75
26%
3.83
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Trat FC xG
Total xG
3.08
1.55
Sukhothai FC xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
8%
13.03
8%
12.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.9 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trat FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Trat FC and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Trat FC and 1.55 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Trat FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 15 outings, Trat FC have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 4W 4D 7L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Trat FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sukhothai FC's form line: 5W 3D 7L from 15 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trat FC on 1.07 PPG, Sukhothai FC on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Trat FC have posted 1.43 PPG from 7 outings (3W 1D 3L).
On the road, Sukhothai FC have gone 2W 2D 3L from 7 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Trat FC are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 1.33 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trat FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Sukhothai FC in 67%.
Last 15 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trat FC
Blended
Sukhothai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trat FC and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Trat FC have gone 4W 4D 7L in their last 15 games (1.07 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 5W 3D 7L in their last 15 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trat FC at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Trat FC's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trat FC at home: 1.43 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trat FC and Sukhothai FC runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Trat FC
2
Draws
0
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trat FC and Sukhothai FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Trat FC have won 0, Sukhothai FC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trat FC and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2024, when Trat FC 1-1 Sukhothai FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trat FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Trat FC at 71%, Sukhothai FC at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Trat FC and 86% for Sukhothai FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trat FC home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trat FC play Sukhothai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Trat FC's games and 71% of Sukhothai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trat FC vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Trat FC's matches and 86% of Sukhothai FC's.
Do Trat FC and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Trat FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trat FC and Sukhothai FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trat FC and Sukhothai FC finished level at 1-1 at Trat Provincial Central Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trat FC 1.53 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.55 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trat FC attack 0.88 / defence 1.21 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.08, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trat FC 36% | Draw 26% | Sukhothai FC 38%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trat FC 73%, Sukhothai FC 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trat FC's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trat FC 1.07 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.