Chiangrai United 3-1 Trat FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chiangrai United vs Trat FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Trat FC travel to Singha Chiangrai Stadium to take on Chiangrai United. The game is scheduled for Thursday 15 February 2024, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chiangrai United stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chiangrai United have posted 4W 4D 2L at Singha Chiangrai Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Chiangrai United are significantly better at Singha Chiangrai Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Trat FC have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Trat FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trat FC's away record: 1W 1D 4L from 6 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Chiangrai United 0.90 PPG, Trat FC 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Chiangrai United, 0 for Trat FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Chiangrai United trading profile (16 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Trat FC trading profile (16 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chiangrai United 62% and Trat FC 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 50% | Trat FC 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.95 xG and Trat FC 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.858 / defence 0.880 | Trat FC attack 0.833 / defence 1.377. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.318. Trat FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.377 — this is suppressing Chiangrai United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Chiangrai United games / 16 Trat FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 59% | Draw 25% | Trat FC 17%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Trat FC 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Chiangrai United (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chiangrai United as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chiangrai United 70% | Trat FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Trat FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Singha Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 15 Feb 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 59% | Draw 25% | Trat FC 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 55% | xG Chiangrai United 1.95 / Trat FC 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.858 / def 0.880 | Trat FC attack 0.833 / def 1.377 | league avg home 1.650 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Trat FC xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Trat FC kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Trat FC kicked off at 11:00 on Thursday 15 February 2024 at Singha Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Trat FC?
Chiangrai United 3 - 1 Trat FC.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Trat FC being played?
The match is being played at Singha Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Trat FC part of?
Chiangrai United vs Trat FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Trat FC?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 59% chance of winning, Trat FC a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Trat FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Chiangrai United and Trat FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Trat FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Trat FC?
Record (1 meetings): Chiangrai United 0W | Draws 1 | Trat FC 0W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Trat FC in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Trat FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Chiangrai United's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Trat FC's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. The same calculation in reverse, Trat FC's attack versus Chiangrai United's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
59%
1.70
25%
4.06
17%
6.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.92
0.97
Trat FC xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
6.02
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
14%
7.03
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
2%
42.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 10.2 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Trat FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Trat FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 0.97 for Trat FC, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Trat FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chiangrai United's recent record stands at 5W 7D 4L from 16 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trat FC, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 7L across 16 games — 1.06 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Trat FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chiangrai United on 1.38 PPG, Trat FC on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Chiangrai United have managed 1W 4D 1L from 6 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Trat FC's away record stands at 1W 1D 4L across 6 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Trat FC are on 1.25 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Trat FC in 62%.
Last 16 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Blended
Trat FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Trat FC in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 5W 7D 4L in their last 16 games (1.38 PPG), while Trat FC have gone 4W 5D 7L in their last 16 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Trat FC away?
Chiangrai United's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.17 PPG; Trat FC away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Chiangrai United or Trat FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Trat FC in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Chiangrai United
1
Draws
0
Trat FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Trat FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 1, Trat FC have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Trat FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2024, when Chiangrai United 3-1 Trat FC.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Trat FC?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Trat FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Chiangrai United at 83%, Trat FC at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Chiangrai United) and 83% (Trat FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trat FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Trat FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Trat FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Chiangrai United's games and 50% of Trat FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chiangrai United vs Trat FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Chiangrai United's matches and 83% of Trat FC's.
Do Chiangrai United and Trat FC tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Trat FC in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chiangrai United cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Trat FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangrai United beat Trat FC 3-1 at Singha Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.95 xG and Trat FC 0.97 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Chiangrai United beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.86 / defence 0.88 against Trat FC attack 0.83 / defence 1.38, drawn from 46/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 59% | Draw 25% | Trat FC 17%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 50%, Trat FC 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (16 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Trat FC's trading profile (16 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.38 PPG, Trat FC 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chiangrai United win broke the near-deadlock. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.