Nakhon Pathom 0-1 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Nakhon Pathom at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Nakhon Pathom face Ratchaburi.

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Analysis

Ratchaburi make the trip to Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium to face Nakhon Pathom in Thai League 1 (matchday 16). The match kicks off on Saturday 10 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Nakhon Pathom have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Nakhon Pathom's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 2L across their last 7 home games (1.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Ratchaburi's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Ratchaburi have posted 0W 4D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Nakhon Pathom, 1.20 for Ratchaburi — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Nakhon Pathom edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2023, ended Nakhon Pathom 1–0 Ratchaburi — a Nakhon Pathom win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Nakhon Pathom half-time and goal-timing data (last 15 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

Ratchaburi half-time and goal-timing data (last 15 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nakhon Pathom 80% and Ratchaburi 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Nakhon Pathom 73% | Ratchaburi 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Pathom 1.42 xG and Ratchaburi 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.910 / defence 1.158 | Ratchaburi attack 0.754 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.301. Ratchaburi's attack rating of 0.754 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.14. Data: built from Nakhon Pathom's last 15 games and Ratchaburi's last 45.

Result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 42% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 28%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Pathom 2.39 | Draw 3.35 | Ratchaburi 3.53. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Nakhon Pathom as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nakhon Pathom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — low conviction — though recent form (Nakhon Pathom's last 7 home games and Ratchaburi's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nakhon Pathom 86% (last 7 home games) | Ratchaburi 50% (last 10 away games).

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