Uthai Thani 1-0 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi meet at Uthai Thani Province Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 September 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Uthai Thani have collected 0.00 PPG across 4 Thai League 1 outings this season: 0W 0D 4L. Last five: L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.75 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Uthai Thani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Ratchaburi arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (0.70 vs 0.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Uthai Thani — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Uthai Thani 50% versus Ratchaburi 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 75% | Ratchaburi 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.19 xG and Ratchaburi 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 0.711 / defence 1.463 | Ratchaburi attack 0.972 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.058. Uthai Thani's attack strength of 0.711 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Uthai Thani games / 34 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 29% | Draw 27% | Ratchaburi 44%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Ratchaburi 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Uthai Thani 50% | Ratchaburi 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Uthai Thani Province Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Sep 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 29% | Draw 27% | Ratchaburi 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Uthai Thani 1.19 / Ratchaburi 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 0.711 / def 1.463 | Ratchaburi attack 0.972 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.058 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Ratchaburi xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi?
Uthai Thani 1 - 0 Ratchaburi.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi part of?
Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 29% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 0W-0D-4L in 4 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.75 | L5 L-L-L-L. Ratchaburi (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Uthai Thani's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Ratchaburi's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — Ratchaburi's attack (0.97x) against Uthai Thani's defence (1.46x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 4/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
29%
3.41
27%
3.73
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
2.69
1.50
Ratchaburi xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
7%
15.36
13%
7.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 1.50 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Uthai Thani come into this having played 4 games, going 0W 0D 4L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Uthai Thani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Ratchaburi sit at 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ratchaburi carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Uthai Thani — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Uthai Thani are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 2.00 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 4 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Early Season
Ratchaburi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 0W 0D 4L in their last 4 games (0.00 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Ratchaburi have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Uthai Thani have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Uthai Thani
1
Draws
4
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi?
From 6 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 1, Ratchaburi have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Ratchaburi 3-1 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Uthai Thani 50%, Ratchaburi 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Uthai Thani and 50% for Ratchaburi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Uthai Thani have failed to score in 50% of games; Ratchaburi in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Uthai Thani's recent matches and 50% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Uthai Thani's matches and 50% of Ratchaburi's.
Do Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Uthai Thani defy the odds to beat Ratchaburi 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Uthai Thani beat Ratchaburi 1-0 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.19 xG and Ratchaburi 1.50 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ratchaburi landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 0.71 / defence 1.46 against Ratchaburi attack 0.97 / defence 1.00, drawn from 4/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 29% | Draw 27% | Ratchaburi 44%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Uthai Thani win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 75%, Ratchaburi 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Uthai Thani's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Uthai Thani winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Uthai Thani conceded 0 against a 2.75 average — tighter than their form line. Ratchaburi managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.