Nakhon Pathom 2-1 Trat FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nakhon Pathom at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Pathom vs Trat FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nakhon Pathom and Trat FC meet at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 March 2024 at 10:30 UTC.
Current Form
Nakhon Pathom's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Pathom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Pathom's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Trat FC have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Trat FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trat FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 6L across 8 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Nakhon Pathom's 1.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Trat FC's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nakhon Pathom lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 7.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 3–4 with Trat FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Nakhon Pathom — key trading statistics (20 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Trat FC — key trading statistics (20 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nakhon Pathom 80% and Trat FC 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Nakhon Pathom 60% | Trat FC 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Pathom 1.67 xG and Trat FC 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.793 / defence 1.195 | Trat FC attack 0.746 / defence 1.255. League average goals — home 1.682 / away 1.197. Nakhon Pathom's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Trat FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.255 — this is suppressing Nakhon Pathom's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Nakhon Pathom games / 20 Trat FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 50% | Draw 28% | Trat FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Pathom 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Trat FC 4.55. Nakhon Pathom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nakhon Pathom as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nakhon Pathom if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Pathom 80% | Trat FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Pathom vs Trat FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Mar 2024, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 50% | Draw 28% | Trat FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Nakhon Pathom 1.67 / Trat FC 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.793 / def 1.195 | Trat FC attack 0.746 / def 1.255 | league avg home 1.682 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Pathom (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Nakhon Pathom xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Trat FC xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Pathom vs Trat FC kick off?
Nakhon Pathom vs Trat FC kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Pathom vs Trat FC?
Nakhon Pathom 2 - 1 Trat FC.
Where is Nakhon Pathom vs Trat FC being played?
The match is being played at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Pathom vs Trat FC part of?
Nakhon Pathom vs Trat FC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Pathom vs Trat FC?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Pathom a 50% chance of winning, Trat FC a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Pathom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Pathom vs Trat FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Nakhon Pathom and Trat FC will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Pathom vs Trat FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Trat FC?
Record (1 meetings): Nakhon Pathom 0W | Draws 0 | Trat FC 1W.
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Trat FC in?
Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Trat FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Nakhon Pathom's attack rating (0.79) and Trat FC's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Trat FC's attack (0.75x) against Nakhon Pathom's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Pathom Win
50%
2.02
28%
3.52
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Nakhon Pathom xG
Total xG
2.74
1.07
Trat FC xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
17%
5.87
4%
24.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.5 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Pathom vs Trat FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Nakhon Pathom and Trat FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Nakhon Pathom and 1.07 for Trat FC, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Pathom vs Trat FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nakhon Pathom come into this having played 20 games, going 5W 8D 7L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-D. The sample for Nakhon Pathom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Trat FC sit at 0.90 PPG from 20 outings (4W 6D 10L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Trat FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Nakhon Pathom against 0.90 for Trat FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Nakhon Pathom's home form reads 2W 3D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Trat FC have taken 0.50 points per game from 8 outings (1W 1D 6L). That's a step down from their 0.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trat FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nakhon Pathom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nakhon Pathom are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Trat FC are on 1.30 scored and 2.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Pathom have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Trat FC in 65%.
Last 20 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Pathom
Blended
Trat FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Trat FC in coming into this match?
Nakhon Pathom have gone 5W 8D 7L in their last 20 games (1.15 PPG), while Trat FC have gone 4W 6D 10L in their last 20 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Pathom at home or Trat FC away?
Nakhon Pathom's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Pathom at home: 1.12 PPG; Trat FC away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Nakhon Pathom
0
Draws
1
Trat FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Trat FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Nakhon Pathom have won 1, Trat FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Pathom and Trat FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2024, when Nakhon Pathom 2-1 Trat FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nakhon Pathom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Trat FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Pathom 75%, Trat FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Nakhon Pathom and 75% for Trat FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trat FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Pathom home games / Trat FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Pathom play Trat FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Nakhon Pathom's games and 50% of Trat FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nakhon Pathom vs Trat FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Nakhon Pathom's matches and 75% of Trat FC's.
Do Nakhon Pathom and Trat FC tend to score early?
Nakhon Pathom have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Trat FC in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nakhon Pathom edge out Trat FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Pathom beat Trat FC 2-1 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Pathom 1.67 xG and Trat FC 1.07 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Pathom attack 0.79 / defence 1.20 against Trat FC attack 0.75 / defence 1.25, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Pathom 50% | Draw 28% | Trat FC 22%, with Nakhon Pathom to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Pathom 60%, Trat FC 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (20 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Trat FC's trading profile (20 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nakhon Pathom 1.15 PPG, Trat FC 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nakhon Pathom win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.