Trat FC 2-1 BG Pathum United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BG Pathum United at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trat FC vs BG Pathum United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees BG Pathum United travel to Trat Provincial Central Stadium to take on Trat FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 March 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Trat FC stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Trat FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trat FC's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Trat Provincial Central Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Trat FC are significantly better at Trat Provincial Central Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, BG Pathum United have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for BG Pathum United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, BG Pathum United have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. BG Pathum United are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Trat FC, 1 for BG Pathum United and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2023, ended 0–3 with BG Pathum United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Trat FC trading profile (21 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
BG Pathum United trading profile (21 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trat FC 67% and BG Pathum United 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trat FC 71% | BG Pathum United 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trat FC 1.45 xG and BG Pathum United 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trat FC attack 0.955 / defence 1.450 | BG Pathum United attack 0.915 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.718 / away 1.183. Data: 21 Trat FC games / 51 BG Pathum United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trat FC 33% | Draw 28% | BG Pathum United 39%. Fair-value odds: Trat FC 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | BG Pathum United 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, BG Pathum United are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BG Pathum United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Trat FC 80% | BG Pathum United 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trat FC vs BG Pathum United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Trat Provincial Central Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trat FC 33% | Draw 28% | BG Pathum United 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 63% | xG Trat FC 1.45 / BG Pathum United 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Trat FC attack 0.955 / def 1.450 | BG Pathum United attack 0.915 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.718 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: BG Pathum United (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Trat FC xG
Expected Goals
1.57
BG Pathum United xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trat FC vs BG Pathum United kick off?
Trat FC vs BG Pathum United kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Trat Provincial Central Stadium.
What was the final score in Trat FC vs BG Pathum United?
Trat FC 2 - 1 BG Pathum United.
Where is Trat FC vs BG Pathum United being played?
The match is being played at Trat Provincial Central Stadium.
What competition is Trat FC vs BG Pathum United part of?
Trat FC vs BG Pathum United is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Trat FC vs BG Pathum United?
Our statistical model gives Trat FC a 33% chance of winning, BG Pathum United a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making BG Pathum United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trat FC vs BG Pathum United?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Trat FC and BG Pathum United will score (BTTS).
Will Trat FC vs BG Pathum United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trat FC and BG Pathum United?
Record (1 meetings): Trat FC 0W | Draws 0 | BG Pathum United 1W.
What form are Trat FC and BG Pathum United in?
Trat FC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. BG Pathum United (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Trat FC's attack rating (0.95) and BG Pathum United's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, BG Pathum United's attack versus Trat FC's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BG Pathum United Win
33%
2.99
28%
3.58
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Trat FC xG
Total xG
3.02
1.57
BG Pathum United xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
21%
4.81
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
7%
14.40
9%
11.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.1 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.1 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trat FC vs BG Pathum United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Trat FC and BG Pathum United expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Trat FC and 1.57 for BG Pathum United, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Trat FC vs BG Pathum United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Trat FC's recent record stands at 4W 6D 11L from 21 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Trat FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BG Pathum United, meanwhile, have gone 10W 7D 4L across 21 games — 1.76 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for BG Pathum United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours BG Pathum United by 0.90 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Trat FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Trat FC have managed 3W 4D 4L from 11 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
BG Pathum United's away record stands at 4W 4D 3L across 11 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Trat FC are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; BG Pathum United are on 1.95 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trat FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trat FC
Blended
BG Pathum United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trat FC and BG Pathum United in coming into this match?
Trat FC have gone 4W 6D 11L in their last 21 games (0.86 PPG), while BG Pathum United have gone 10W 7D 4L in their last 21 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trat FC at home or BG Pathum United away?
BG Pathum United's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trat FC at home: 1.18 PPG; BG Pathum United away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Trat FC
0
Draws
1
BG Pathum United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trat FC and BG Pathum United?
From 2 meetings on record, Trat FC have won 1, BG Pathum United have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Trat FC and BG Pathum United last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when Trat FC 2-1 BG Pathum United.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trat FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trat FC 73%, BG Pathum United 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Trat FC) and 36% (BG Pathum United).
On the defensive side: BG Pathum United in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trat FC home games / BG Pathum United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trat FC play BG Pathum United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Trat FC's games and 54% of BG Pathum United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trat FC vs BG Pathum United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Trat FC's recent games and 36% of BG Pathum United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trat FC and BG Pathum United tend to score early?
Trat FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, BG Pathum United in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Trat FC defy the odds to beat BG Pathum United 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trat FC beat BG Pathum United 2-1 at Trat Provincial Central Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trat FC 1.45 xG and BG Pathum United 1.57 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trat FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.45 against BG Pathum United attack 0.92 / defence 0.89, drawn from 21/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trat FC 33% | Draw 28% | BG Pathum United 39%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Trat FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trat FC 71%, BG Pathum United 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trat FC's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
BG Pathum United's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.86. Form was overturned, with Trat FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.