Ratchaburi 2-0 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ratchaburi face Lamphun Warrior.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior meet at Dragon Solar Park in Thai League 1 (matchday 21). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 March 2024 at 12:00 UK time.

Current Form

Ratchaburi's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Ratchaburi at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Lamphun Warrior have collected 2.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Lamphun Warrior away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 2.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Ratchaburi, 0 for Lamphun Warrior and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2023, ended Ratchaburi 1–1 Lamphun Warrior — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).

Lamphun Warrior — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 49% versus Lamphun Warrior 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 33% | Lamphun Warrior 49%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Ratchaburi surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Lamphun Warrior have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.60 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 0.963 / defence 0.779 | Lamphun Warrior attack 1.120 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.670 / away 1.187. Ratchaburi have a tight defence (rating 0.779), which is pulling Lamphun Warrior's projected output down. Data: built from Ratchaburi's last 50 games and Lamphun Warrior's last 49.

Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 48% | Draw 29% | Lamphun Warrior 22%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.06 | Draw 3.41 | Lamphun Warrior 4.49. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches — though recent form (Ratchaburi's last 10 home games and Lamphun Warrior's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ratchaburi 60% (last 10 home games) | Lamphun Warrior 50% (last 10 away games).

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