Nakhon Pathom 1-1 Prachuap – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Nakhon Pathom at 36% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap encounter.

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Match Analysis

Nakhon Pathom host Prachuap at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 17). Kick-off is Tuesday 13 February 2024 at 11:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Nakhon Pathom have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Nakhon Pathom's home record over their last 8 home games: 3W 2D 3L (1.38 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Prachuap stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Prachuap have posted 0W 4D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Nakhon Pathom carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Nakhon Pathom's last 8 home games and Prachuap's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Nakhon Pathom, 0 for Prachuap and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 27 Aug 2023, ended Nakhon Pathom 2–2 Prachuap — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Nakhon Pathom in-play and half-time data (last 16 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

Prachuap in-play and half-time data (last 16 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nakhon Pathom 75% and Prachuap 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Pathom 69% | Prachuap 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Pathom 1.32 xG and Prachuap 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.806 / defence 1.142 | Prachuap attack 0.832 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.590 / away 1.324. Data: built from Nakhon Pathom's last 16 games and Prachuap's last 46.

Result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 36% | Draw 31% | Prachuap 33%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Pathom 2.76 | Draw 3.28 | Prachuap 3.01. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Nakhon Pathom are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nakhon Pathom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Nakhon Pathom's last 8 home games and Prachuap's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nakhon Pathom 75% (last 8 home games) | Prachuap 70% (last 10 away games).

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