FC Thun vs FC Vaduz – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Thun at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Thun vs FC Vaduz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Vaduz make the trip to Stockhorn Arena to face FC Thun in Super League, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 February 2027 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
FC Thun (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Thun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Thun's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Stockhorn Arena this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Vaduz's overall Super League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Vaduz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Vaduz away from home this season: 0W 1D 6L from 7 away games — 0.14 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 2.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.14 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for FC Thun against 1.00 for FC Vaduz. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Thun have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Vaduz in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Thun lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2026, ended 2–1 with FC Thun winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC Thun — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 75%.
FC Vaduz — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Thun 75% and FC Vaduz 92% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Thun 83% | FC Vaduz 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Thun 1.92 xG and FC Vaduz 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Thun attack 0.865 / defence 1.254 | FC Vaduz attack 0.853 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.853 / away 1.744. Data: 45 FC Thun games / 12 FC Vaduz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Thun 40% | Draw 21% | FC Vaduz 38%. Fair-value odds: FC Thun 2.50 | Draw 4.76 | FC Vaduz 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Thun are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.79 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate: FC Thun 60% | FC Vaduz 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Thun vs FC Vaduz | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stockhorn Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Thun 40% | Draw 21% | FC Vaduz 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 72% | xG FC Thun 1.92 / FC Vaduz 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: FC Thun attack 0.865 / def 1.254 | FC Vaduz attack 0.853 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.853 / away 1.744 • Poisson stance: FC Thun (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
FC Thun xG
Expected Goals
1.87
FC Vaduz xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Thun vs FC Vaduz kick off?
FC Thun vs FC Vaduz is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Stockhorn Arena.
Where is FC Thun vs FC Vaduz being played?
The match is being played at Stockhorn Arena.
What competition is FC Thun vs FC Vaduz part of?
FC Thun vs FC Vaduz is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Thun vs FC Vaduz?
Our statistical model gives FC Thun a 40% chance of winning, FC Vaduz a 38% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC Thun the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Thun vs FC Vaduz?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both FC Thun and FC Vaduz will score (BTTS).
Will FC Thun vs FC Vaduz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and FC Vaduz?
Record (1 meetings): FC Thun 1W | Draws 0 | FC Vaduz 0W.
What form are FC Thun and FC Vaduz in?
FC Thun (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. FC Vaduz (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Thun's attack rating (0.86) and FC Vaduz's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Vaduz's attack (0.85x) against FC Thun's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.87.
These ratings are built from 45/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.8%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Thun Win
40%
2.48
21%
4.67
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
FC Thun xG
Total xG
3.79
1.87
FC Vaduz xG
2.48
40%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.59
Clean Sheet
15%
6.46
15%
6.83
Win to Nil
6%
16.00
6%
17.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Thun vs FC Vaduz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are FC Thun and FC Vaduz expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for FC Thun and 1.87 for FC Vaduz, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Thun vs FC Vaduz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Thun come into this having played 12 games, going 4W 1D 7L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. The sample for FC Thun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Vaduz sit at 0.83 PPG from 12 outings (3W 1D 8L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for FC Vaduz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for FC Thun against 0.83 for FC Vaduz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
FC Thun's home form reads 0W 1D 4L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.20 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.08 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, FC Vaduz have taken 0.20 points per game from 5 outings (0W 1D 4L). That's a step down from their 0.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Vaduz's season.
Attack vs Defence
FC Thun are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 2.83 conceded per game recently; FC Vaduz are on 2.00 scored and 2.08 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Thun have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; FC Vaduz in 92%.
Last 12 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Thun
Blended
FC Vaduz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Thun and FC Vaduz in coming into this match?
FC Thun have gone 4W 1D 7L in their last 12 games (1.08 PPG), while FC Vaduz have gone 3W 1D 8L in their last 12 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Thun at home or FC Vaduz away?
FC Thun's home record (0.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Thun at home: 0.20 PPG; FC Vaduz away: 0.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
FC Thun
0
Draws
0
FC Vaduz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and FC Vaduz?
From 1 meetings on record, FC Thun have won 1, FC Vaduz have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Thun and FC Vaduz last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when FC Vaduz 1-2 FC Thun.
Who has won more matches between FC Thun and FC Vaduz?
FC Thun have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
FC Vaduz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 40% for FC Thun, 100% for FC Vaduz — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for FC Thun and 100% for FC Vaduz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Thun have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Thun home games / FC Vaduz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Thun play FC Vaduz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of FC Thun's games and 100% of FC Vaduz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Thun vs FC Vaduz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of FC Thun's matches and 100% of FC Vaduz's.
Do FC Thun and FC Vaduz tend to score early?
FC Thun have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FC Vaduz in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.