FC Thun vs FC Vaduz – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Vaduz at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Thun vs FC Vaduz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Vaduz make the trip to Stockhorn Arena to face FC Thun in Super League, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
FC Thun (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 3.10 conceded. However, 3.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Thun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Thun's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Stockhorn Arena this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Vaduz's overall Super League record this term: 2W 0D 6L from 8 games (0.75 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.12 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.38 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Vaduz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Vaduz away from home this season: 0W 0D 5L from 5 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.75 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for FC Thun against 0.75 for FC Vaduz. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Thun have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Vaduz in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
FC Thun — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 75%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
FC Vaduz — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Thun 62% and FC Vaduz 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Thun 75% | FC Vaduz 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Thun 1.58 xG and FC Vaduz 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Thun attack 0.716 / defence 1.199 | FC Vaduz attack 0.804 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.858 / away 1.893. FC Thun's attack strength of 0.716 is below the league average — the 1.58 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 FC Thun games / 8 FC Vaduz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Thun 34% | Draw 22% | FC Vaduz 44%. Fair-value odds: FC Thun 2.94 | Draw 4.55 | FC Vaduz 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Vaduz are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Vaduz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.40 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: FC Thun 60% | FC Vaduz 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Thun vs FC Vaduz | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stockhorn Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Thun 34% | Draw 22% | FC Vaduz 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG FC Thun 1.58 / FC Vaduz 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: FC Thun attack 0.716 / def 1.199 | FC Vaduz attack 0.804 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.858 / away 1.893 • Poisson stance: FC Vaduz (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
FC Thun xG
Expected Goals
1.82
FC Vaduz xG
67%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Thun vs FC Vaduz kick off?
FC Thun vs FC Vaduz is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Stockhorn Arena.
Where is FC Thun vs FC Vaduz being played?
The match is being played at Stockhorn Arena.
What competition is FC Thun vs FC Vaduz part of?
FC Thun vs FC Vaduz is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Thun vs FC Vaduz?
Our statistical model gives FC Thun a 34% chance of winning, FC Vaduz a 44% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC Vaduz the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Thun vs FC Vaduz?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both FC Thun and FC Vaduz will score (BTTS).
Will FC Thun vs FC Vaduz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and FC Vaduz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Thun and FC Vaduz in?
FC Thun (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 3.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. FC Vaduz (all comps): 2W-0D-6L in 8 | 0.75 PPG | GF 2.12 / GA 2.38 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Thun's attack rating (0.72) and FC Vaduz's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Vaduz's attack (0.80x) against FC Thun's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.82.
These ratings are built from 41/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Vaduz Win
34%
2.97
22%
4.45
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
FC Thun xG
Total xG
3.40
1.82
FC Vaduz xG
2.97
34%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
16%
6.20
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
5%
18.44
9%
11.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.6 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Thun vs FC Vaduz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are FC Thun and FC Vaduz expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for FC Thun and 1.82 for FC Vaduz, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Thun vs FC Vaduz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Thun come into this having played 8 games, going 2W 1D 5L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. The sample for FC Thun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Vaduz sit at 0.75 PPG from 8 outings (2W 0D 6L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for FC Vaduz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.88 PPG for FC Thun against 0.75 for FC Vaduz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
FC Thun's home form reads 0W 1D 3L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.25 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.88 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, FC Vaduz have taken 0.00 points per game from 4 outings (0W 0D 4L). That's a step down from their 0.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Vaduz's season.
Attack vs Defence
FC Thun are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game recently; FC Vaduz are on 2.12 scored and 2.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Thun have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; FC Vaduz in 100%.
Last 8 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Thun
Blended
FC Vaduz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Thun and FC Vaduz in coming into this match?
FC Thun have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 games (0.88 PPG), while FC Vaduz have gone 2W 0D 6L in their last 8 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Thun at home or FC Vaduz away?
FC Thun's home record (0.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Thun at home: 0.25 PPG; FC Vaduz away: 0.00 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
FC Vaduz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Thun 25%, FC Vaduz 100% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for FC Thun and 100% for FC Vaduz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Thun have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Thun home games / FC Vaduz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Thun play FC Vaduz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 25% of FC Thun's games and 100% of FC Vaduz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Thun vs FC Vaduz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of FC Thun's matches and 100% of FC Vaduz's.
Do FC Thun and FC Vaduz tend to score early?
FC Thun have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC Vaduz in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.