Orgryte IS 1-0 United Nordic – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Orgryte IS at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orgryte IS vs United Nordic encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
United Nordic travel to Gamla Ullevi to take on Orgryte IS in Superettan (Relegation Round). The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Orgryte IS stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Orgryte IS's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 home games (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Across their last 1 games, United Nordic have recorded 0W 0D 1L — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
Orgryte IS carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Orgryte IS have won 1, United Nordic 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 23 Nov 2023, ended Orgryte IS 1–0 United Nordic — a Orgryte IS win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.45 xG and United Nordic 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.802 / defence 1.266 | United Nordic attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.569 / away 1.195. Orgryte IS's defence rating of 1.266 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing United Nordic's projected output up. Data: built from Orgryte IS's last 60 games and United Nordic's last 0.
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 41% | Draw 26% | United Nordic 34%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.44 | Draw 3.92 | United Nordic 2.98. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orgryte IS at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Orgryte IS's last 10 home games and United Nordic's last 1 games) averaging only 1.9 goals per game points the other way.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs United Nordic | Competition: Superettan, Relegation Round | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 26 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 41% | Draw 26% | United Nordic 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Orgryte IS 1.45 / United Nordic 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.802 / def 1.266 | United Nordic attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.569 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.29
United Nordic xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Orgryte IS vs United Nordic FAQs
What time does Orgryte IS vs United Nordic kick off?
Orgryte IS vs United Nordic kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs United Nordic?
Orgryte IS 1 - 0 United Nordic.
Where is Orgryte IS vs United Nordic being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs United Nordic part of?
Orgryte IS vs United Nordic is a Superettan fixture (Relegation Round) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs United Nordic?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 41% chance of winning, United Nordic a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs United Nordic?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Orgryte IS and United Nordic will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Orgryte IS vs United Nordic have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Orgryte IS's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against United Nordic's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, United Nordic's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Orgryte IS's last 60 games and United Nordic's last 0 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
41%
2.44
26%
3.92
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.73
1.29
United Nordic xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
11%
8.84
8%
12.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.1 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Orgryte IS vs United Nordic Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs United Nordic?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and United Nordic expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.29 for United Nordic, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs United Nordic?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 1 outings, Orgryte IS have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 0L record — W across the most recent five.
United Nordic's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L.
Put side by side, Orgryte IS are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against United Nordic.
Goals in Recent Form
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; United Nordic are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; United Nordic in 0%.
Defensively: Orgryte IS have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Early Season
United Nordic
Early Season
Orgryte IS (Home) vs United Nordic (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Orgryte IS
Early Season
United Nordic
Early Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
❓ Orgryte IS vs United Nordic Form FAQs
What form are Orgryte IS and United Nordic in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while United Nordic have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Orgryte IS or United Nordic been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orgryte IS have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, United Nordic in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2023. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 26 November 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Orgryte IS
0
Draws
0
United Nordic
Recent Meetings
❓ Orgryte IS vs United Nordic H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and United Nordic?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Orgryte IS have won 2, United Nordic have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and United Nordic last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 November 2023: Orgryte IS 1-0 United Nordic.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and United Nordic?
Orgryte IS have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / United Nordic away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Orgryte IS vs United Nordic Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Orgryte IS and United Nordic matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Orgryte IS's recent matches and 0% of United Nordic's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Orgryte IS and United Nordic matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 0% of United Nordic's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orgryte IS and United Nordic matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 0% of Orgryte IS's recent matches and 0% of United Nordic's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Orgryte IS edge out United Nordic 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat United Nordic 1-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Relegation Round, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.45 xG and United Nordic 1.29 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. United Nordic landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.80 / defence 1.27 against United Nordic attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 60/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 41% | Draw 26% | United Nordic 34%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 0%, United Nordic 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Orgryte IS arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.