Ostersunds FK 1-1 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 57% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ostersunds FK face Orebro SK.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Ostersunds FK welcome Orebro SK to Jämtkraft Arena in Superettan (matchday 6). Kick-off is Sunday 5 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Ostersunds FK have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ostersunds FK's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Orebro SK stand at 4W 0D 6L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Orebro SK's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Ostersunds FK) versus 1.20 (Orebro SK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Ostersunds FK's games and 60% of Orebro SK's (from Ostersunds FK's last 10 home games and Orebro SK's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Ostersunds FK, 1 for Orebro SK and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended Ostersunds FK 4–3 Orebro SK — a Ostersunds FK win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Orebro SK in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 58% versus Orebro SK 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 43% | Orebro SK 53%). Note also that Orebro SK surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Ostersunds FK recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.73 xG and Orebro SK 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 1.019 / defence 0.985 | Orebro SK attack 0.952 / defence 1.291. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 0.906. Orebro SK's defence rating of 1.291 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ostersunds FK's projected output up. Data: built from Ostersunds FK's last 35 games and Orebro SK's last 35.
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 57% | Draw 25% | Orebro SK 17%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 1.75 | Draw 3.94 | Orebro SK 5.76. The model has a clear lean to Ostersunds FK (57%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ostersunds FK are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Ostersunds FK's last 10 home games and Orebro SK's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Ostersunds FK 80% (last 10 home games) | Orebro SK 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, matchday 6 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 57% | Draw 25% | Orebro SK 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Ostersunds FK 1.73 / Orebro SK 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 1.019 / def 0.985 | Orebro SK attack 0.952 / def 1.291 | league avg home 1.313 / away 0.906 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Orebro SK xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK FAQs
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK?
Ostersunds FK 1 - 1 Orebro SK.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK is a Superettan fixture (matchday 6) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 57% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ostersunds FK's attack at 1.02x the league average against Orebro SK's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ostersunds FK's last 35 games and Orebro SK's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
57%
1.75
25%
3.94
17%
5.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.58
0.85
Orebro SK xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
5.76
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
24%
4.09
3%
32.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.2 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 0.85 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Ostersunds FK have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 18W 22D 20L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Orebro SK's form line: 18W 17D 25L from 60 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ostersunds FK on 1.27 PPG, Orebro SK on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ostersunds FK have posted 1.57 PPG from their last 30 home games (12W 11D 7L).
On the road, Orebro SK have gone 6W 7D 17L from their last 30 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ostersunds FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.27 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
Orebro SK
Current Season
Ostersunds FK (Home) vs Orebro SK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
Orebro SK
Current Season
❓ Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK Form FAQs
What form are Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 18W 22D 20L in their last 60 games (1.27 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 18W 17D 25L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Orebro SK away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.57 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Ostersunds FK or Orebro SK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ostersunds FK have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Orebro SK in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was as recently as 7 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Ostersunds FK have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Aug 2024, when Orebro SK won Orebro SK 4-1 Ostersunds FK.
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting Orebro SK specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ostersunds FK
2
Draws
3
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Ostersunds FK have won 5, Orebro SK have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 September 2026: Orebro SK 0-1 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK?
Ostersunds FK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 63%, Orebro SK 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ostersunds FK) and 67% (Orebro SK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orebro SK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Ostersunds FK's games and 53% of Orebro SK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Ostersunds FK's matches and 67% of Orebro SK's.
Do Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Ostersunds FK's recent matches and 73% of Orebro SK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 6, as Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK drew 1-1 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.73 xG and Orebro SK 0.85 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.02 / defence 0.98 against Orebro SK attack 0.95 / defence 1.29, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 57% | Draw 25% | Orebro SK 17%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 43%, Orebro SK 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Orebro SK's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.27 PPG, Orebro SK 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.