Oddevold 1-0 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Oddevold at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 6 as Oddevold welcome GIF Sundsvall to Rimnersvallen. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 May 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
GIF Sundsvall — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
GIF Sundsvall away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oddevold 1.26 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oddevold attack 0.869 / defence 1.041 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.817 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 0.889. Data: 5 Oddevold games / 35 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oddevold 47% | Draw 33% | GIF Sundsvall 20%. Fair-value odds: Oddevold 2.13 | Draw 3.03 | GIF Sundsvall 5.00. Oddevold hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Oddevold as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oddevold offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Rimnersvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oddevold 47% | Draw 33% | GIF Sundsvall 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Oddevold 1.26 / GIF Sundsvall 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Oddevold attack 0.869 / def 1.041 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.817 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.323 / away 0.889 • Poisson stance: Oddevold (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Oddevold xG
Expected Goals
0.76
GIF Sundsvall xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Rimnersvallen.
What was the final score in Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall?
Oddevold 1 - 0 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Rimnersvallen.
What competition is Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Oddevold a 47% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 20% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Oddevold the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Oddevold and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and GIF Sundsvall?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Oddevold and GIF Sundsvall in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. GIF Sundsvall away split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Oddevold's attack at 0.87x the league average against GIF Sundsvall's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, GIF Sundsvall's attack versus Oddevold's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oddevold Win
47%
2.15
33%
3.02
20%
4.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Oddevold xG
Total xG
2.02
0.76
GIF Sundsvall xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
4.92
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
6%
17.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 10.0 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 12.7 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Oddevold and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Oddevold and 0.76 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oddevold
Pre-Season
GIF Sundsvall
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Oddevold have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2024, when GIF Sundsvall won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Oddevold's record when hosting GIF Sundsvall specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Oddevold
0
Draws
2
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and GIF Sundsvall?
From 5 meetings on record, Oddevold have won 3, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Oddevold and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 1-3 Oddevold.
Who has won more matches between Oddevold and GIF Sundsvall?
Oddevold have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oddevold home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Oddevold edge out GIF Sundsvall 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oddevold beat GIF Sundsvall 1-0 at Rimnersvallen, Regular Season - 6, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oddevold 1.26 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.76 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oddevold attack 0.87 / defence 1.04 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.82 / defence 1.10, drawn from 5/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oddevold 47% | Draw 33% | GIF Sundsvall 20%, with Oddevold to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.