GIF Sundsvall 1-2 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
NP3 Arena plays host to GIF Sundsvall versus IK brage in Superettan, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Sunday 8 October 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
GIF Sundsvall's overall Superettan record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, GIF Sundsvall have posted 3W 4D 3L at NP3 Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
IK brage have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, IK brage have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for GIF Sundsvall, 1 for IK brage and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2023, ended 0–2 with IK brage winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
GIF Sundsvall — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
IK brage — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 58% versus IK brage 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 62% | IK brage 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.53 xG and IK brage 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.875 / defence 1.196 | IK brage attack 0.592 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.288. Data: 25 GIF Sundsvall games / 55 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 51% | Draw 27% | IK brage 22%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | IK brage 4.55. GIF Sundsvall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, GIF Sundsvall are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: GIF Sundsvall 70% | IK brage 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 51% | Draw 27% | IK brage 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.53 / IK brage 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.875 / def 1.196 | IK brage attack 0.592 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.615 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
0.91
IK brage xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 8 October 2023 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage?
GIF Sundsvall 1 - 2 IK brage.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 51% chance of winning, IK brage a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and IK brage?
Record (3 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 0W | Draws 2 | IK brage 1W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and IK brage in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. IK brage (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from GIF Sundsvall's attack rating (0.88) and IK brage's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IK brage's attack (0.59x) against GIF Sundsvall's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 25/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
51%
1.96
27%
3.70
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.44
0.91
IK brage xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
5%
21.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.1 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 0.91 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
GIF Sundsvall's recent record stands at 11W 9D 35L from 55 games, a 0.76 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IK brage, meanwhile, have gone 20W 14D 21L across 55 games — 1.35 PPG, with D-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours IK brage by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over GIF Sundsvall heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, GIF Sundsvall have managed 8W 4D 15L from 27 games — 1.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IK brage's away record stands at 7W 8D 12L across 27 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.33 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IK brage in 60%.
Last 55 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
IK brage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and IK brage in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 11W 9D 35L in their last 55 games (0.76 PPG), while IK brage have gone 20W 14D 21L in their last 55 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or IK brage away?
IK brage's away record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.04 PPG; IK brage away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 20 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IK brage won 5-0 on 23 Jun 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIF Sundsvall have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IK brage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
GIF Sundsvall
3
Draws
5
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and IK brage?
From 9 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, IK brage have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 1-2 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and IK brage?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 67%, IK brage 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for GIF Sundsvall and 56% for IK brage. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IK brage in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play IK brage?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 59% of IK brage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of GIF Sundsvall's matches and 56% of IK brage's.
Do GIF Sundsvall and IK brage tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, IK brage in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IK brage defy the odds to beat GIF Sundsvall 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat GIF Sundsvall 1-2 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.53 xG and IK brage 0.91 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. IK brage outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.88 / defence 1.20 against IK brage attack 0.59 / defence 1.08, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 51% | Draw 27% | IK brage 22%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a IK brage win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 62%, IK brage 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
IK brage's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, IK brage arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.76. Form held, and they took the win. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.