Orebro SK 0-1 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 70%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Behrn Arena plays host to Orebro SK versus GIF Sundsvall in Superettan, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Tuesday 24 October 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Orebro SK have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK at Behrn Arena this season: 4W 6D 0L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Behrn Arena.
GIF Sundsvall's overall Superettan record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Orebro SK, 1.00 for GIF Sundsvall — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Orebro SK 0W, GIF Sundsvall 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jul 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Orebro SK — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
GIF Sundsvall — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 48% versus GIF Sundsvall 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 52% | GIF Sundsvall 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 2.45 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 1.228 / defence 0.827 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.906 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.283. GIF Sundsvall bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing Orebro SK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Orebro SK games / 26 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 70% | Draw 18% | GIF Sundsvall 12%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 1.43 | Draw 5.56 | GIF Sundsvall 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Orebro SK (70%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orebro SK at 70% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.41 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Orebro SK 50% | GIF Sundsvall 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Oct 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 70% | Draw 18% | GIF Sundsvall 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 57% | xG Orebro SK 2.45 / GIF Sundsvall 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 1.228 / def 0.827 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.906 / def 1.251 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.45
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
0.96
GIF Sundsvall xG
57%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 24 October 2023 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Orebro SK 0 - 1 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 70% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 12% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Orebro SK and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (1 meetings): Orebro SK 0W | Draws 1 | GIF Sundsvall 0W.
What form are Orebro SK and GIF Sundsvall in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Orebro SK's attack at 1.23x the league average against GIF Sundsvall's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 2.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (0.91x) against Orebro SK's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 56/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
70%
1.44
18%
5.59
12%
8.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.45
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
3.41
0.96
GIF Sundsvall xG
1.44
70%
Home win
5.59
18%
Draw
8.01
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
9%
11.59
Win to Nil
27%
3.76
1%
92.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 2.45 expected goals for Orebro SK and 0.96 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Orebro SK's recent record stands at 17W 17D 22L from 56 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIF Sundsvall, meanwhile, have gone 11W 9D 36L across 56 games — 0.75 PPG, with W-L-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Orebro SK by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over GIF Sundsvall heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Orebro SK have managed 11W 10D 7L from 28 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIF Sundsvall's away record stands at 3W 5D 20L across 28 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orebro SK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Orebro SK are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.11 scored and 2.29 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 17W 17D 22L in their last 56 games (1.21 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 11W 9D 36L in their last 56 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.54 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Orebro SK or GIF Sundsvall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orebro SK have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, GIF Sundsvall in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 10 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orebro SK have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Orebro SK
3
Draws
3
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and GIF Sundsvall?
From 7 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 1, GIF Sundsvall have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 10 June 2026, when Orebro SK 0-1 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and GIF Sundsvall?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 43%, GIF Sundsvall 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Orebro SK) and 57% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Orebro SK have failed to score in 36% of games; GIF Sundsvall in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 50% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Orebro SK's recent games and 57% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as GIF Sundsvall defy the odds to beat Orebro SK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Orebro SK 0-1 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 2.45 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.96 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Orebro SK fell 2.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 1.23 / defence 0.83 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.91 / defence 1.25, drawn from 56/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 70% | Draw 18% | GIF Sundsvall 12%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a GIF Sundsvall win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 52%, GIF Sundsvall 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Orebro SK arrived the stronger side — 1.21 PPG against 0.75. Form was overturned, with GIF Sundsvall winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.