Orebro SK 0-1 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 70% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Orebro SK face GIF Sundsvall.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Behrn Arena plays host to Orebro SK versus GIF Sundsvall in Superettan (matchday 27). Kick-off: Tuesday 24 October 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Orebro SK have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Orebro SK at home: 4W 6D 0L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
GIF Sundsvall's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
GIF Sundsvall's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Orebro SK, 1.00 for GIF Sundsvall — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 22 Jul 2023, ended Orebro SK 2–2 GIF Sundsvall — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Orebro SK — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
GIF Sundsvall — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 48% versus GIF Sundsvall 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 52% | GIF Sundsvall 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 2.45 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 1.228 / defence 0.827 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.906 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.283. GIF Sundsvall's defence rating of 1.251 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Orebro SK's projected output up. Data: built from Orebro SK's last 56 games and GIF Sundsvall's last 26.
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 70% | Draw 18% | GIF Sundsvall 12%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 1.44 | Draw 5.59 | GIF Sundsvall 8.01. The model has a clear lean to Orebro SK (70%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orebro SK at 70% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.41 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Orebro SK's last 10 home games and GIF Sundsvall's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Orebro SK 50% (last 10 home games) | GIF Sundsvall 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, matchday 27 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 October 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 70% | Draw 18% | GIF Sundsvall 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Orebro SK 2.45 / GIF Sundsvall 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 1.228 / def 0.827 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.906 / def 1.251 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.45
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
0.96
GIF Sundsvall xG
57%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall FAQs
What time does Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Tuesday 24 October 2023 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Orebro SK 0 - 1 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall is a Superettan fixture (matchday 27) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 70% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 12% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Orebro SK and GIF Sundsvall will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Orebro SK's attack at 1.23x the league average against GIF Sundsvall's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 2.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (0.91x) against Orebro SK's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from Orebro SK's last 56 games and GIF Sundsvall's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
70%
1.44
18%
5.59
12%
8.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.45
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
3.41
0.96
GIF Sundsvall xG
1.44
70%
Home win
5.59
18%
Draw
8.01
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
9%
11.59
Win to Nil
27%
3.76
1%
92.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 2.45 expected goals for Orebro SK and 0.96 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Orebro SK's recent record stands at 17W 17D 22L from 56 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five.
GIF Sundsvall, meanwhile, have gone 11W 9D 36L across 56 games — 0.75 PPG, with W-L-D-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Orebro SK by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over GIF Sundsvall heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Orebro SK have managed 11W 10D 7L from their last 28 home games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIF Sundsvall's away record stands at 3W 5D 20L across their last 28 away games, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orebro SK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Orebro SK are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.11 scored and 2.29 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
Orebro SK (Home) vs GIF Sundsvall (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Orebro SK
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall Form FAQs
What form are Orebro SK and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 17W 17D 22L in their last 56 games (1.21 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 11W 9D 36L in their last 56 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.54 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Orebro SK or GIF Sundsvall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orebro SK have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, GIF Sundsvall in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was as recently as 10 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Orebro SK won GIF Sundsvall 0-3 Orebro SK on 10 Sep 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orebro SK have gone 0W 1D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Orebro SK
3
Draws
3
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and GIF Sundsvall?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Orebro SK have won 2, GIF Sundsvall have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 September 2026: GIF Sundsvall 0-3 Orebro SK.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and GIF Sundsvall?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 43%, GIF Sundsvall 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Orebro SK) and 57% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Orebro SK have failed to score in 36% of games; GIF Sundsvall in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Orebro SK and GIF Sundsvall matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 50% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Orebro SK and GIF Sundsvall matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Orebro SK's recent games and 57% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and GIF Sundsvall matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 86% of GIF Sundsvall's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as GIF Sundsvall defy the odds to beat Orebro SK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Orebro SK 0-1 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 2.45 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.96 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Orebro SK fell 2.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 1.23 / defence 0.83 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.91 / defence 1.25, drawn from 56/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 70% | Draw 18% | GIF Sundsvall 12%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a GIF Sundsvall win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 52%, GIF Sundsvall 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Orebro SK arrived the stronger side — 1.21 PPG against 0.75. Form was overturned, with GIF Sundsvall winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.