Vasteras SK FK 3-1 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vasteras SK FK at 69% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Vasteras SK FK welcome Jonkopings Sodra to Hitachi Energy Arena in Superettan (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 7 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Vasteras SK FK stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Vasteras SK FK at home: 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Jonkopings Sodra have recorded 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Vasteras SK FK carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Vasteras SK FK have won 1, Jonkopings Sodra 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Apr 2023, ended Vasteras SK FK 1–2 Jonkopings Sodra — a Jonkopings Sodra win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Vasteras SK FK in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Jonkopings Sodra in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vasteras SK FK 54% and Jonkopings Sodra 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 58% | Jonkopings Sodra 64%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Vasteras SK FK surrender their half-time lead 32% of the time, while Jonkopings Sodra have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.98 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.993 / defence 0.571 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.844 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.278. Jonkopings Sodra's defence rating of 1.230 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Vasteras SK FK's projected output up. Vasteras SK FK have a tight defence (rating 0.571), which is pulling Jonkopings Sodra's projected output down. Data: built from Vasteras SK FK's last 55 games and Jonkopings Sodra's last 55.
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 69% | Draw 22% | Jonkopings Sodra 10%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 1.45 | Draw 4.65 | Jonkopings Sodra 10.40. The model has a clear lean to Vasteras SK FK (69%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vasteras SK FK are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Vasteras SK FK 20% (last 10 home games) | Jonkopings Sodra 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra | Competition: Superettan, matchday 26 | Venue: Hitachi Energy Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 69% | Draw 22% | Jonkopings Sodra 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.98 / Jonkopings Sodra 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.993 / def 0.571 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.844 / def 1.230 | league avg home 1.625 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Jonkopings Sodra xG
41%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra FAQs
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Vasteras SK FK 3 - 1 Jonkopings Sodra.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra being played?
The match is being played at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra is a Superettan fixture (matchday 26) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 69% chance of winning, Jonkopings Sodra a 10% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Jonkopings Sodra will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Vasteras SK FK's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Jonkopings Sodra's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. The same calculation in reverse, Jonkopings Sodra's attack versus Vasteras SK FK's defence, projects 0.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Vasteras SK FK's last 55 games and Jonkopings Sodra's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 1-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
69%
1.45
22%
4.65
10%
10.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.6%
Home win
3 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
2.60
0.62
Jonkopings Sodra xG
1.45
69%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
10.40
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
54%
1.85
14%
7.27
Win to Nil
37%
2.69
1%
75.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 9.1 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.6 | 9.0 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Jonkopings Sodra expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 0.62 for Jonkopings Sodra, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Vasteras SK FK have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 26W 16D 13L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Jonkopings Sodra's form line: 16W 17D 22L from 55 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Vasteras SK FK are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jonkopings Sodra.
Venue Form
On home soil, Vasteras SK FK have posted 1.93 PPG from their last 27 home games (14W 10D 3L).
On the road, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 5W 11D 11L from their last 27 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasteras SK FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Jonkopings Sodra are on 1.44 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jonkopings Sodra in 71%.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
Vasteras SK FK (Home) vs Jonkopings Sodra (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
❓ Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra Form FAQs
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Jonkopings Sodra in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 26W 16D 13L in their last 55 games (1.71 PPG), while Jonkopings Sodra have gone 16W 17D 22L in their last 55 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or Jonkopings Sodra away?
Vasteras SK FK's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 1.93 PPG; Jonkopings Sodra away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Vasteras SK FK or Jonkopings Sodra been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Jonkopings Sodra in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from May 2021. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 7 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Vasteras SK FK's record when hosting Jonkopings Sodra specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Vasteras SK FK
2
Draws
2
Jonkopings Sodra
Recent Meetings
❓ Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Jonkopings Sodra?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Vasteras SK FK have won 2, Jonkopings Sodra have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Jonkopings Sodra last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 October 2023: Vasteras SK FK 3-1 Jonkopings Sodra.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 86% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 48%, Jonkopings Sodra 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Vasteras SK FK) and 59% (Jonkopings Sodra). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Jonkopings Sodra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Vasteras SK FK and Jonkopings Sodra matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Vasteras SK FK's games and 67% of Jonkopings Sodra's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Vasteras SK FK and Jonkopings Sodra matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Vasteras SK FK's matches and 59% of Jonkopings Sodra's.
Do Vasteras SK FK and Jonkopings Sodra matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Vasteras SK FK's recent matches and 74% of Jonkopings Sodra's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vasteras SK FK cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Jonkopings Sodra.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat Jonkopings Sodra 3-1 at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.98 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 0.62 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Vasteras SK FK beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.99 / defence 0.57 against Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.84 / defence 1.23, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 69% | Draw 22% | Jonkopings Sodra 10%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 58%, Jonkopings Sodra 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Vasteras SK FK arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.85 average — above their attacking norm. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.