BK Hacken 3-2 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours BK Hacken (67%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as BK Hacken face Sirius.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
BK Hacken welcome Sirius to Bravida Arena in Allsvenskan (matchday 20). Kick-off is Sunday 20 August 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, BK Hacken stand at 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, BK Hacken have gone 9W 0D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — BK Hacken are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Sirius have recorded 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Sirius's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
BK Hacken carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
BK Hacken hold a clear advantage across the 3 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Sirius and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 23 Apr 2023, ended BK Hacken 4–1 Sirius — a BK Hacken win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both BK Hacken and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 4.3 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
BK Hacken trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 96% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 70%; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Sirius trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BK Hacken 74% versus Sirius 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 67% | Sirius 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 2.31 xG and Sirius 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.728 / defence 0.882 | Sirius attack 0.913 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.209. BK Hacken carry an above-average attack rating of 1.728 — their 2.31 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from BK Hacken's last 49 games and Sirius's last 49.
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 67% | Draw 18% | Sirius 14%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 1.48 | Draw 5.48 | Sirius 6.96. The model has a clear lean to BK Hacken (67%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, BK Hacken are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.29 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (BK Hacken's last 10 home games and Sirius's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: BK Hacken 80% (last 10 home games) | Sirius 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 20 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 August 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 67% | Draw 18% | Sirius 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG BK Hacken 2.31 / Sirius 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.728 / def 0.882 | Sirius attack 0.913 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Sirius xG
56%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ BK Hacken vs Sirius FAQs
What time does BK Hacken vs Sirius kick off?
BK Hacken vs Sirius kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 20 August 2023 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs Sirius?
BK Hacken 3 - 2 Sirius.
Where is BK Hacken vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs Sirius part of?
BK Hacken vs Sirius is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 20) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 67% chance of winning, Sirius a 14% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both BK Hacken and Sirius will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will BK Hacken vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates BK Hacken's attack at 1.73x the league average against Sirius's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 2.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sirius's attack versus BK Hacken's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from BK Hacken's last 49 games and Sirius's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
67%
1.48
18%
5.48
14%
6.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
3.29
0.97
Sirius xG
1.48
67%
Home win
5.48
18%
Draw
6.96
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
10%
10.11
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
1%
70.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ BK Hacken vs Sirius Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for BK Hacken and 0.97 for Sirius, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs Sirius?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, BK Hacken have picked up 2.14 PPG on a 31W 12D 6L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Sirius's form line: 14W 13D 22L from 49 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W.
Put side by side, BK Hacken are the form team by 1.02 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sirius.
Venue Form
On home soil, BK Hacken have posted 2.29 PPG from their last 24 home games (17W 4D 3L).
On the road, Sirius have gone 5W 10D 9L from their last 24 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
BK Hacken are averaging 2.37 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.12 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Blended
Sirius
Blended
BK Hacken (Home) vs Sirius (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
BK Hacken
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ BK Hacken vs Sirius Form FAQs
What form are BK Hacken and Sirius in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 31W 12D 6L in their last 49 games (2.14 PPG), while Sirius have gone 14W 13D 22L in their last 49 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or Sirius away?
BK Hacken's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 2.29 PPG; Sirius away: 1.04 PPG.
Have BK Hacken or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Sirius in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2022. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 21 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 Apr 2023, when BK Hacken won Sirius 1-4 BK Hacken.
BK Hacken's record when hosting Sirius specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
BK Hacken
2
Draws
1
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ BK Hacken vs Sirius H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Sirius?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, BK Hacken have won 7, Sirius have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and Sirius last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 August 2026: Sirius 0-3 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and Sirius?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 79%, Sirius 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for BK Hacken and 50% for Sirius. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sirius in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ BK Hacken vs Sirius Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in BK Hacken and Sirius matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of BK Hacken's games and 42% of Sirius's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are BK Hacken and Sirius matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of BK Hacken's matches and 50% of Sirius's.
Do BK Hacken and Sirius matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 96% of BK Hacken's recent matches and 67% of Sirius's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as BK Hacken edge out Sirius 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat Sirius 3-2 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 2.31 xG and Sirius 0.97 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Sirius outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.73 / defence 0.88 against Sirius attack 0.91 / defence 0.95, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 67% | Draw 18% | Sirius 14%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 67%, Sirius 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Sirius's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, BK Hacken arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.