Djurgardens IF 1-2 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Djurgardens IF face IFK Varnamo.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF host IFK Varnamo at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan (matchday 23). Kick-off is Saturday 16 September 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Djurgardens IF — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Djurgardens IF's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Djurgardens IF are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, IFK Varnamo stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, IFK Varnamo have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Djurgardens IF at 2.00 PPG versus IFK Varnamo's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Djurgardens IF have won 2, IFK Varnamo 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Jul 2023, ended Djurgardens IF 2–1 IFK Varnamo — a Djurgardens IF win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Djurgardens IF in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
IFK Varnamo in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 40% versus IFK Varnamo 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 52% | IFK Varnamo 46%). Note also that IFK Varnamo surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Djurgardens IF recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.47 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.134 / defence 0.885 | IFK Varnamo attack 1.091 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.234. Data: built from Djurgardens IF's last 52 games and IFK Varnamo's last 52.
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 44% | Draw 26% | IFK Varnamo 31%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 2.29 | Draw 3.89 | IFK Varnamo 3.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Djurgardens IF are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Djurgardens IF 30% (last 10 home games) | IFK Varnamo 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 23 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 44% | Draw 26% | IFK Varnamo 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Djurgardens IF 1.47 / IFK Varnamo 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.134 / def 0.885 | IFK Varnamo attack 1.091 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.19
IFK Varnamo xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Djurgardens IF vs IFK Varnamo FAQs
What time does Djurgardens IF vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs IFK Varnamo?
Djurgardens IF 1 - 2 IFK Varnamo.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs IFK Varnamo part of?
Djurgardens IF vs IFK Varnamo is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 23) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 44% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Djurgardens IF and IFK Varnamo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Djurgardens IF vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Djurgardens IF's attack rating (1.13) and IFK Varnamo's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Varnamo's attack versus Djurgardens IF's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Djurgardens IF's last 52 games and IFK Varnamo's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
44%
2.29
26%
3.89
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.66
1.19
IFK Varnamo xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
13%
7.55
7%
14.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.2 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Djurgardens IF vs IFK Varnamo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.19 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs IFK Varnamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Djurgardens IF's recent record stands at 29W 10D 13L from 52 games, a 1.87 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-W in the last five.
IFK Varnamo, meanwhile, have gone 18W 12D 22L across 52 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Djurgardens IF by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over IFK Varnamo heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Djurgardens IF have managed 20W 2D 4L from their last 26 home games — 2.38 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.87 PPG overall — Djurgardens IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
IFK Varnamo's away record stands at 9W 5D 12L across their last 26 away games, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.10 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
IFK Varnamo
Blended
Djurgardens IF (Home) vs IFK Varnamo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Djurgardens IF
Blended
IFK Varnamo
Blended
❓ Djurgardens IF vs IFK Varnamo Form FAQs
What form are Djurgardens IF and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 29W 10D 13L in their last 52 games (1.87 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 18W 12D 22L in their last 52 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or IFK Varnamo away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 2.38 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or IFK Varnamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, IFK Varnamo in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from July 2022. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was on 25 October 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Jul 2022, when Djurgardens IF won Djurgardens IF 5-0 IFK Varnamo.
Djurgardens IF's record when hosting IFK Varnamo specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Djurgardens IF
2
Draws
2
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Djurgardens IF vs IFK Varnamo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and IFK Varnamo?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Djurgardens IF have won 4, IFK Varnamo have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2025: Djurgardens IF 6-2 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and IFK Varnamo?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 38%, IFK Varnamo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Djurgardens IF and 58% for IFK Varnamo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; IFK Varnamo in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Djurgardens IF vs IFK Varnamo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Djurgardens IF and IFK Varnamo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 50% of IFK Varnamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Djurgardens IF and IFK Varnamo matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Djurgardens IF's matches and 58% of IFK Varnamo's.
Do Djurgardens IF and IFK Varnamo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 73% of IFK Varnamo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IFK Varnamo defy the odds to beat Djurgardens IF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat Djurgardens IF 1-2 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.47 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.19 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. IFK Varnamo outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.13 / defence 0.89 against IFK Varnamo attack 1.09 / defence 0.84, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 44% | Draw 26% | IFK Varnamo 31%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual IFK Varnamo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 52%, IFK Varnamo 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with IFK Varnamo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.