Hammarby FF 3-1 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Kalmar FF travel to Tele2 Arena to take on Hammarby FF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 July 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Hammarby FF — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tele2 Arena, Hammarby FF have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Hammarby FF are significantly better at Tele2 Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kalmar FF stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kalmar FF's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hammarby FF 1.30 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hammarby FF register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Kalmar FF in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Hammarby FF, 2 for Kalmar FF and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2022, ended 4–2 with Hammarby FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Hammarby FF in-play tendencies (44 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Kalmar FF in-play tendencies (44 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 46% versus Kalmar FF 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 54% | Kalmar FF 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.29 xG and Kalmar FF 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.071 / defence 1.001 | Kalmar FF attack 0.910 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.290. Data: 45 Hammarby FF games / 44 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 37% | Draw 32% | Kalmar FF 31%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Kalmar FF 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 5.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 60% | Kalmar FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jul 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 37% | Draw 32% | Kalmar FF 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Hammarby FF 1.29 / Kalmar FF 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.071 / def 1.001 | Kalmar FF attack 0.910 / def 0.823 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Kalmar FF xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 16 July 2023 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF?
Hammarby FF 3 - 1 Kalmar FF.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF part of?
Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 37% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Hammarby FF and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Kalmar FF?
Record (5 meetings): Hammarby FF 2W | Draws 1 | Kalmar FF 2W.
What form are Hammarby FF and Kalmar FF in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Kalmar FF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hammarby FF's attack at 1.07x the league average against Kalmar FF's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kalmar FF's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
37%
2.70
32%
3.17
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.46
1.17
Kalmar FF xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
11%
8.75
9%
11.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.0 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.9 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.17 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hammarby FF's recent record stands at 20W 12D 12L from 44 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kalmar FF, meanwhile, have gone 21W 10D 13L across 44 games — 1.66 PPG, with W-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hammarby FF on 1.64 PPG, Kalmar FF on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hammarby FF have managed 12W 6D 2L from 20 games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.64 PPG overall — Hammarby FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Kalmar FF's away record stands at 6W 7D 7L across 20 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.66 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kalmar FF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.34 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Kalmar FF in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 20W 12D 12L in their last 44 games (1.64 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 21W 10D 13L in their last 44 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Kalmar FF away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.10 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or Kalmar FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Kalmar FF in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Hammarby FF have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Aug 2024, when Hammarby FF won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting Kalmar FF specifically: 5W 1D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Hammarby FF
2
Draws
2
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Kalmar FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 6, Kalmar FF have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Hammarby FF 2-0 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Kalmar FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 50%, Kalmar FF 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Hammarby FF) and 45% (Kalmar FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Kalmar FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Hammarby FF's games and 65% of Kalmar FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Hammarby FF's matches and 45% of Kalmar FF's.
Do Hammarby FF and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hammarby FF cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Kalmar FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Kalmar FF 3-1 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.29 xG and Kalmar FF 1.17 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Hammarby FF beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.07 / defence 1.00 against Kalmar FF attack 0.91 / defence 0.82, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 37% | Draw 32% | Kalmar FF 31%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 54%, Kalmar FF 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (44 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (44 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.64 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.