Athletic Club 4-0 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Athletic Club at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Athletic Club vs Mallorca encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 23 as Athletic Club welcome Mallorca to San Mamés Barria. Kick-off is set for Friday 2 February 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Athletic Club have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Athletic Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at San Mamés Barria, Athletic Club have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at San Mamés Barria. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Athletic Club are significantly better at San Mamés Barria than their overall form suggests.
Mallorca — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mallorca's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Athletic Club have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Athletic Club, 1 for Mallorca and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Athletic Club in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Mallorca in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Athletic Club 40% versus Mallorca 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Athletic Club 45% | Mallorca 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Athletic Club 1.86 xG and Mallorca 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Athletic Club attack 1.448 / defence 0.894 | Mallorca attack 0.745 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.162. Athletic Club carry an above-average attack strength of 1.448 — their λ of 1.86 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 60 Athletic Club games / 60 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Athletic Club 62% | Draw 24% | Mallorca 14%. Fair-value odds: Athletic Club 1.61 | Draw 4.17 | Mallorca 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Athletic Club (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Athletic Club as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Athletic Club 50% | Mallorca 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Athletic Club vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: San Mamés Barria • Kick-off: Friday 2 Feb 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Athletic Club 62% | Draw 24% | Mallorca 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 46% | xG Athletic Club 1.86 / Mallorca 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Athletic Club attack 1.448 / def 0.894 | Mallorca attack 0.745 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Athletic Club (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Athletic Club xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Mallorca xG
46%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Athletic Club vs Mallorca kick off?
Athletic Club vs Mallorca kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 2 February 2024 at San Mamés Barria.
What was the final score in Athletic Club vs Mallorca?
Athletic Club 4 - 0 Mallorca.
Where is Athletic Club vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at San Mamés Barria.
What competition is Athletic Club vs Mallorca part of?
Athletic Club vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Athletic Club vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Athletic Club a 62% chance of winning, Mallorca a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Athletic Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Athletic Club and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Athletic Club vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Mallorca?
Record (5 meetings): Athletic Club 1W | Draws 3 | Mallorca 1W.
What form are Athletic Club and Mallorca in?
Athletic Club (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Mallorca (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Athletic Club's attacking strength (1.45x league average) is weighed against Mallorca's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. The same calculation in reverse, Mallorca's attack versus Athletic Club's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 1-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Athletic Club Win
62%
1.61
24%
4.21
14%
7.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Athletic Club xG
Total xG
2.63
0.77
Mallorca xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
7.11
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
16%
6.40
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
2%
45.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 10.3 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Athletic Club vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Athletic Club and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Athletic Club and 0.77 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Athletic Club vs Mallorca?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Athletic Club have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 26W 15D 19L record — W-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Athletic Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mallorca's form line: 17W 19D 24L from 60 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-L. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Athletic Club on 1.55 PPG, Mallorca on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Athletic Club have posted 1.77 PPG from 30 outings (16W 5D 9L).
On the road, Mallorca have gone 5W 7D 18L from 30 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mallorca's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Athletic Club come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Athletic Club are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.93 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Athletic Club
Blended
Mallorca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Athletic Club and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Athletic Club have gone 26W 15D 19L in their last 60 games (1.55 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 17W 19D 24L in their last 60 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Athletic Club at home or Mallorca away?
Athletic Club's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Athletic Club at home: 1.77 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Athletic Club or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Mallorca in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Feb 2024, when Athletic Club won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Athletic Club's record when hosting Mallorca specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Athletic Club
5
Draws
2
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Mallorca?
From 10 meetings on record, Athletic Club have won 3, Mallorca have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Athletic Club and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Mallorca 3-2 Athletic Club.
Who has won more matches between Athletic Club and Mallorca?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Athletic Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Athletic Club 30% BTTS, Mallorca 40%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Athletic Club) and 37% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Athletic Club keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Athletic Club have failed to score in 37% of games; Mallorca in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Athletic Club home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Athletic Club play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Athletic Club's recent matches and 40% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Athletic Club vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Athletic Club's recent games and 37% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Athletic Club and Mallorca tend to score early?
Athletic Club have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Athletic Club run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Mallorca.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Athletic Club beat Mallorca 4-0 at San Mamés Barria, Regular Season - 23, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 1.86 xG and Mallorca 0.77 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Athletic Club beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 1.45 / defence 0.89 against Mallorca attack 0.74 / defence 0.95, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 62% | Draw 24% | Mallorca 14%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 45%, Mallorca 28%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Athletic Club's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mallorca's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Athletic Club 1.55 PPG, Mallorca 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Athletic Club win broke the near-deadlock. Athletic Club (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.