Osasuna 0-3 Celta Vigo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Osasuna face Celta Vigo.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Osasuna host Celta Vigo at Estadio El Sadar in La Liga (matchday 23). Kick-off is Sunday 4 February 2024 at 15:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Osasuna — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Osasuna at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Celta Vigo stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Celta Vigo have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Osasuna 1.30 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Osasuna have won 2, Celta Vigo 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 13 Aug 2023, ended Osasuna 2–0 Celta Vigo — a Osasuna win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Osasuna in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Celta Vigo in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 47% versus Celta Vigo 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 38% | Celta Vigo 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.45 xG and Celta Vigo 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.996 / defence 1.005 | Celta Vigo attack 1.001 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.150. Data: built from Osasuna's last 60 games and Celta Vigo's last 60.
Result probabilities: Osasuna 42% | Draw 30% | Celta Vigo 28%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.38 | Draw 3.36 | Celta Vigo 3.53. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Osasuna 50% (last 10 home games) | Celta Vigo 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Celta Vigo | Competition: La Liga, matchday 23 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 4 February 2024 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 42% | Draw 30% | Celta Vigo 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Osasuna 1.45 / Celta Vigo 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.996 / def 1.005 | Celta Vigo attack 1.001 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Celta Vigo xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Osasuna vs Celta Vigo FAQs
What time does Osasuna vs Celta Vigo kick off?
Osasuna vs Celta Vigo kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Sunday 4 February 2024 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Celta Vigo?
Osasuna 0 - 3 Celta Vigo.
Where is Osasuna vs Celta Vigo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Celta Vigo part of?
Osasuna vs Celta Vigo is a La Liga fixture (matchday 23) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Celta Vigo?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 42% chance of winning, Celta Vigo a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Celta Vigo?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Osasuna and Celta Vigo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Osasuna vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Osasuna's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Celta Vigo's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Celta Vigo's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Osasuna's last 60 games and Celta Vigo's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.1%), 0-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
42%
2.38
30%
3.36
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.60
1.16
Celta Vigo xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
13%
7.57
7%
15.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.4 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Osasuna vs Celta Vigo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Celta Vigo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Celta Vigo expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.16 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Celta Vigo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Osasuna's recent record stands at 22W 13D 25L from 60 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five.
Celta Vigo, meanwhile, have gone 14W 18D 28L across 60 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.32 PPG, Celta Vigo on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 14W 4D 11L from their last 29 home games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Celta Vigo's away record stands at 5W 8D 16L across their last 29 away games, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osasuna are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Celta Vigo are on 1.07 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Celta Vigo
Blended
Osasuna (Home) vs Celta Vigo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Osasuna
Blended
Celta Vigo
Blended
❓ Osasuna vs Celta Vigo Form FAQs
What form are Osasuna and Celta Vigo in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 22W 13D 25L in their last 60 games (1.32 PPG), while Celta Vigo have gone 14W 18D 28L in their last 60 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Celta Vigo away?
Osasuna's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.59 PPG; Celta Vigo away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from January 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 27 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Osasuna have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Feb 2024, when Celta Vigo won Osasuna 0-3 Celta Vigo.
Osasuna's record when hosting Celta Vigo specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Osasuna
1
Draws
4
Celta Vigo
Recent Meetings
❓ Osasuna vs Celta Vigo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Celta Vigo?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Osasuna have won 5, Celta Vigo have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Celta Vigo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 August 2026: Celta Vigo 1-2 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Celta Vigo?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 41%, Celta Vigo 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Osasuna) and 48% (Celta Vigo).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Osasuna have failed to score in 31% of games; Celta Vigo in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Celta Vigo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Osasuna vs Celta Vigo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Osasuna and Celta Vigo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Osasuna's recent matches and 55% of Celta Vigo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Osasuna and Celta Vigo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Osasuna's recent games and 48% of Celta Vigo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Celta Vigo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Osasuna's recent matches and 69% of Celta Vigo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Celta Vigo run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Osasuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Celta Vigo beat Osasuna 0-3 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 23, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.45 xG and Celta Vigo 1.16 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Osasuna fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Celta Vigo outscored their 1.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.00 / defence 1.00 against Celta Vigo attack 1.00 / defence 1.08, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 42% | Draw 30% | Celta Vigo 28%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Celta Vigo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 38%, Celta Vigo 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Celta Vigo's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.32 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Celta Vigo win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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