Almeria 0-0 Athletic Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Athletic Club (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Almeria face Athletic Club.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Athletic Club make the trip to Power Horse Stadium to face Almeria in La Liga, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Monday 12 February 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Almeria have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Almeria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Power Horse Stadium, Almeria have gone 0W 5D 5L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Athletic Club's overall La Liga record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Athletic Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Athletic Club's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Athletic Club are 1.80 PPG clear of Almeria in recent La Liga fixtures (2.10 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Athletic Club, who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2023, ended 0–3 with Athletic Club winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Athletic Club have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Almeria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Athletic Club goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almeria 66% versus Athletic Club 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almeria 64% | Athletic Club 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almeria 0.75 xG and Athletic Club 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almeria attack 0.710 / defence 1.222 | Athletic Club attack 0.841 / defence 0.784. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.168. Almeria's attack strength of 0.710 is below the league average — the 0.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Athletic Club's defence strength of 0.784 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 61 Almeria games / 61 Athletic Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almeria 21% | Draw 33% | Athletic Club 45%. Fair-value odds: Almeria 4.76 | Draw 3.03 | Athletic Club 2.22. Athletic Club hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Athletic Club are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Athletic Club if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Almeria 60% | Athletic Club 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almeria vs Athletic Club | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Power Horse Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 12 Feb 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almeria 21% | Draw 33% | Athletic Club 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Almeria 0.75 / Athletic Club 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Almeria attack 0.710 / def 1.222 | Athletic Club attack 0.841 / def 0.784 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Athletic Club (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Almeria xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Athletic Club xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almeria vs Athletic Club kick off?
Almeria vs Athletic Club kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 12 February 2024 at Power Horse Stadium.
What was the final score in Almeria vs Athletic Club?
Almeria 0 - 0 Athletic Club.
Where is Almeria vs Athletic Club being played?
The match is being played at Power Horse Stadium.
What competition is Almeria vs Athletic Club part of?
Almeria vs Athletic Club is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Almeria vs Athletic Club?
Our statistical model gives Almeria a 21% chance of winning, Athletic Club a 45% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Athletic Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almeria vs Athletic Club?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Almeria and Athletic Club will score (BTTS).
Will Almeria vs Athletic Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Athletic Club?
Record (3 meetings): Almeria 0W | Draws 0 | Athletic Club 3W.
What form are Almeria and Athletic Club in?
Almeria (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Athletic Club (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Almeria's attack rating (0.71) and Athletic Club's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 0.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Athletic Club's attack (0.84x) against Almeria's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Athletic Club Win
21%
4.66
33%
2.99
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Almeria xG
Total xG
1.95
1.20
Athletic Club xG
4.66
21%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
47%
2.11
Win to Nil
6%
15.46
21%
4.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 17.1 | 10.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.8 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almeria vs Athletic Club?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Almeria and Athletic Club expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Almeria and 1.20 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Almeria vs Athletic Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Almeria's recent record stands at 11W 14D 36L from 61 games, a 0.77 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Almeria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Athletic Club, meanwhile, have gone 27W 15D 19L across 61 games — 1.57 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Athletic Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Athletic Club by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Almeria heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Almeria have managed 10W 8D 12L from 30 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.77 PPG overall — Almeria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Athletic Club's away record stands at 10W 10D 10L across 30 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Almeria are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Athletic Club are on 1.46 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: Athletic Club in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almeria
Blended
Athletic Club
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almeria and Athletic Club in coming into this match?
Almeria have gone 11W 14D 36L in their last 61 games (0.77 PPG), while Athletic Club have gone 27W 15D 19L in their last 61 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almeria at home or Athletic Club away?
Athletic Club's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almeria at home: 1.27 PPG; Athletic Club away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Almeria or Athletic Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almeria have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Athletic Club in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Athletic Club won 4-0 on 30 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almeria have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Athletic Club — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Almeria
1
Draws
3
Athletic Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Athletic Club?
From 4 meetings on record, Almeria have won 0, Athletic Club have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Almeria and Athletic Club last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2024, when Almeria 0-0 Athletic Club.
Who has won more matches between Almeria and Athletic Club?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Athletic Club see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almeria 60%, Athletic Club 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Almeria) and 43% (Athletic Club).
On the defensive side: Almeria have failed to score in 30% of games; Athletic Club in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almeria home games / Athletic Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almeria play Athletic Club?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Almeria's games and 50% of Athletic Club's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almeria vs Athletic Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Almeria's recent games and 43% of Athletic Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Almeria and Athletic Club tend to score early?
Almeria have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Athletic Club in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Almeria's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Power Horse Stadium, Regular Season - 24, as Almeria and Athletic Club drew 0-0 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almeria 0.75 xG and Athletic Club 1.20 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Athletic Club landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almeria attack 0.71 / defence 1.22 against Athletic Club attack 0.84 / defence 0.78, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almeria 21% | Draw 33% | Athletic Club 45%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almeria 64%, Athletic Club 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almeria's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Athletic Club's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Almeria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Athletic Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.