Alaves 1-1 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Villarreal at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Villarreal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alaves host Villarreal at Estadio de Mendizorroza in La Liga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 February 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alaves stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Alaves have posted 4W 1D 5L at Estadio de Mendizorroza — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all La Liga games this season, Villarreal have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Villarreal's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Alaves 1.40 PPG, Villarreal 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Alaves have won 1, Villarreal 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Alaves in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Villarreal in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Alaves 44% and Villarreal 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 35% | Villarreal 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.49 xG and Villarreal 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.777 / defence 1.127 | Villarreal attack 1.209 / defence 1.462. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.175. Alaves's attack strength of 0.777 is below the league average — the 1.49 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Villarreal bring a strong defensive rating of 1.462 — this is suppressing Alaves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Villarreal have an above-average attack strength of 1.209 — the away xG of 1.60 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 23 Alaves games / 61 Villarreal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 34% | Draw 28% | Villarreal 39%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Villarreal 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Villarreal at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Villarreal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Alaves 30% | Villarreal 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 34% | Draw 28% | Villarreal 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG Alaves 1.49 / Villarreal 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.777 / def 1.127 | Villarreal attack 1.209 / def 1.462 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Villarreal xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Villarreal kick off?
Alaves vs Villarreal kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Villarreal?
Alaves 1 - 1 Villarreal.
Where is Alaves vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Villarreal part of?
Alaves vs Villarreal is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 34% chance of winning, Villarreal a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Alaves and Villarreal will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Villarreal?
Record (3 meetings): Alaves 1W | Draws 1 | Villarreal 1W.
What form are Alaves and Villarreal in?
Alaves (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Villarreal (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Alaves's attack rating (0.78) and Villarreal's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Villarreal's attack versus Alaves's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
34%
2.95
28%
3.63
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Alaves xG
Total xG
3.09
1.60
Villarreal xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
7%
14.63
9%
11.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.8 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Alaves and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Alaves and 1.60 for Villarreal, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 23 outings, Alaves have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 7W 5D 11L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Villarreal's form line: 6W 6D 11L from 23 games, 1.04 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-D. The sample for Villarreal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alaves on 1.13 PPG, Villarreal on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Alaves have posted 1.45 PPG from 11 outings (5W 1D 5L).
On the road, Villarreal have gone 3W 3D 5L from 11 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Alaves are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.43 scored and 1.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal in 78%.
Last 23 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Blended
Villarreal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 7W 5D 11L in their last 23 games (1.13 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 6W 6D 11L in their last 23 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Villarreal away?
Alaves's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.45 PPG; Villarreal away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Dec 2021, when Villarreal won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alaves's record when hosting Villarreal specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Alaves
3
Draws
3
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Villarreal?
From 8 meetings on record, Alaves have won 2, Villarreal have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Villarreal last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Alaves 1-1 Villarreal.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Villarreal?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 36%, Villarreal 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Alaves) and 64% (Villarreal).
On the defensive side: Alaves have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Villarreal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Alaves's recent matches and 73% of Villarreal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Villarreal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Alaves's recent games and 64% of Villarreal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Villarreal tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Villarreal in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alaves and Villarreal share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves and Villarreal finished level at 1-1 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 24, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.49 xG and Villarreal 1.60 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.78 / defence 1.13 against Villarreal attack 1.21 / defence 1.46, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 34% | Draw 28% | Villarreal 39%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 35%, Villarreal 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Villarreal's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alaves 1.13 PPG, Villarreal 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Villarreal (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.