Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-0 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon City FC meet at Gimcheon Stadium in K League 1, Championship Round - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 November 2024 at 07:30 UTC.

Form

Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

At home at Gimcheon Stadium, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gimcheon Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Gimcheon Sangmu FC are significantly better at Gimcheon Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Suwon City FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Gimcheon Sangmu FC against 0.90 for Suwon City FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gimcheon Sangmu FC lead 2W to 3W over the last 6 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 4–2 with Gimcheon Sangmu FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Gimcheon Sangmu FC — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

Suwon City FC — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 43% versus Suwon City FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 46% | Suwon City FC 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.53 xG and Suwon City FC 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.108 / defence 0.888 | Suwon City FC attack 1.073 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.233. Data: 33 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 66 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 46% | Draw 25% | Suwon City FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Suwon City FC 3.45. Gimcheon Sangmu FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40% | Suwon City FC 60%.

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