Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-0 Incheon United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 30 as Gimcheon Sangmu FC welcome Incheon United to Gimcheon Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 September 2024 at 08:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record at Gimcheon Stadium: 5W 3D 2L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gimcheon Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Gimcheon Sangmu FC are significantly better at Gimcheon Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Incheon United — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Incheon United's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) versus 1.10 (Incheon United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, 2 for Incheon United and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Jul 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Gimcheon Sangmu FC trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Incheon United trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 45% versus Incheon United 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48% | Incheon United 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.42 xG and Incheon United 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.097 / defence 0.980 | Incheon United attack 0.999 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.248. Data: 29 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 62 Incheon United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 42% | Draw 26% | Incheon United 32%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Incheon United 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50% | Incheon United 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 42% | Draw 26% | Incheon United 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.42 / Incheon United 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.097 / def 0.980 | Incheon United attack 0.999 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Incheon United xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2 - 0 Incheon United.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 42% chance of winning, Incheon United a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United?
Record (5 meetings): Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1W | Draws 2 | Incheon United 2W.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United in?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Incheon United (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack at 1.10x the league average against Incheon United's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Incheon United's attack versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
42%
2.40
26%
3.85
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.64
1.22
Incheon United xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
12%
8.15
8%
12.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.4 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.22 for Incheon United, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gimcheon Sangmu FC come into this having played 29 games, going 13W 8D 8L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Incheon United sit at 1.07 PPG from 29 outings (7W 10D 12L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Incheon United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home form reads 8W 3D 3L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Incheon United have taken 1.43 points per game from 14 outings (5W 5D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gimcheon Sangmu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Incheon United are on 1.07 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
Incheon United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 13W 8D 8L in their last 29 games (1.62 PPG), while Incheon United have gone 7W 10D 12L in their last 29 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or Incheon United away?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 1.93 PPG; Incheon United away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Incheon United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Incheon United in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Incheon United have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 May 2026, when Incheon United won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's record when hosting Incheon United specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
2
Draws
4
Incheon United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United?
From 8 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, Incheon United have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-3 Incheon United.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United?
Incheon United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Incheon United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50%, Incheon United 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) and 57% (Incheon United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gimcheon Sangmu FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Incheon United in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Incheon United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gimcheon Sangmu FC play Incheon United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 57% of Incheon United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's matches and 57% of Incheon United's.
Do Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United tend to score early?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Incheon United in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Incheon United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Incheon United 2-0 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.42 xG and Incheon United 1.22 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Incheon United landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.10 / defence 0.98 against Incheon United attack 1.00 / defence 0.89, drawn from 29/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 42% | Draw 26% | Incheon United 32%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48%, Incheon United 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Incheon United's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Gimcheon Sangmu FC arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Incheon United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.