Jeju United FC 0-4 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jeju United FC and Daegu FC meet at Jeju World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 September 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jeju United FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Jeju United FC's form when playing at home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 games at Jeju World Cup Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jeju World Cup Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Jeju United FC are significantly better at Jeju World Cup Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Daegu FC have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Daegu FC have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Jeju United FC, 1.00 for Daegu FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Jeju United FC, 3 for Daegu FC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jun 2024, ended 0–1 with Daegu FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Jeju United FC — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Daegu FC — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 48% versus Daegu FC 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 43% | Daegu FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.26 xG and Daegu FC 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.892 / defence 0.914 | Daegu FC attack 0.868 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.147. Data: 62 Jeju United FC games / 62 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 45% | Draw 29% | Daegu FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Daegu FC 3.70. Jeju United FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jeju United FC as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Jeju United FC 40% | Daegu FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 45% | Draw 29% | Daegu FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Jeju United FC 1.26 / Daegu FC 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 0.892 / def 0.914 | Daegu FC attack 0.868 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Daegu FC xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC?
Jeju United FC 0 - 4 Daegu FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 45% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Jeju United FC and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Daegu FC?
Record (4 meetings): Jeju United FC 1W | Draws 0 | Daegu FC 3W.
What form are Jeju United FC and Daegu FC in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Daegu FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Jeju United FC's attack at 0.89x the league average against Daegu FC's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Daegu FC's attack (0.87x) against Jeju United FC's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
45%
2.25
29%
3.48
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.17
0.91
Daegu FC xG
2.25
45%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
18%
5.58
8%
13.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 10.4 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.1 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 0.91 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jeju United FC's recent record stands at 21W 13D 33L from 67 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Daegu FC, meanwhile, have gone 20W 23D 24L across 67 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-L-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Jeju United FC against 1.24 for Daegu FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Jeju United FC have managed 14W 6D 13L from 33 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daegu FC's away record stands at 9W 8D 16L across 33 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.07 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 67 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 21W 13D 33L in their last 67 games (1.13 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 20W 23D 24L in their last 67 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Daegu FC away?
Jeju United FC's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.45 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Daegu FC won 0-4 on 14 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeju United FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Daegu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jeju United FC
3
Draws
5
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 2, Daegu FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Jeju United FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Daegu FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 48%, Daegu FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Jeju United FC) and 42% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Daegu FC in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play Daegu FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Jeju United FC's recent matches and 48% of Daegu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Jeju United FC's recent games and 42% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Daegu FC run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Jeju United FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Jeju United FC 0-4 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.26 xG and Daegu FC 0.91 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Jeju United FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Daegu FC outscored their 0.91 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.89 / defence 0.91 against Daegu FC attack 0.87 / defence 0.95, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 45% | Draw 29% | Daegu FC 27%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Daegu FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 43%, Daegu FC 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Daegu FC's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.13 PPG, Daegu FC 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daegu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Daegu FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.