Damac 1-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Damac face Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC meet at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 21 September 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Damac have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Damac have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Damac have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 7W 0D 3L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrive in superior form — a 1.80 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 4 meetings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Damac's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2023, ended 0–1 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Damac half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Al-Hilal Saudi FC half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 58% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 53% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.26 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.963 / defence 1.092 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.484 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.439. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.484 — the away xG of 2.33 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 Damac games / 36 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 20% | Draw 19% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 61%. Fair-value odds: Damac 5.00 | Draw 5.26 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (61%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.26 / 2.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.59 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. This conflicts with form data: Damac 60% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 21 Sep 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 20% | Draw 19% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 65% | xG Damac 1.26 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.33 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.963 / def 1.092 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.484 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.439 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Damac xG
Expected Goals
2.33
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
65%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 16:00 on Thursday 21 September 2023 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Damac 1 - 1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 20% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 61% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (4 meetings): Damac 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3W.
What form are Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Damac (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Damac's attack at 0.96x the league average against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack (1.48x) against Damac's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 2.33.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
20%
5.10
19%
5.22
61%
1.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
0 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Damac xG
Total xG
3.59
2.33
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
5.10
20%
Home win
5.22
19%
Draw
1.63
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
10%
10.29
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
2%
52.49
17%
5.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Damac and 2.33 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Damac's recent record stands at 9W 12D 15L from 36 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Damac, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC, meanwhile, have gone 22W 9D 5L across 36 games — 2.08 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Damac heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Damac have managed 5W 7D 5L from 17 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record stands at 10W 4D 3L across 17 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Damac are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.06 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Early Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 9W 12D 15L in their last 36 games (1.08 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 22W 9D 5L in their last 36 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.29 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Damac or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Damac have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hilal Saudi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Damac
3
Draws
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Damac have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-0 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 59%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Damac) and 53% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Damac's recent matches and 35% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Damac's recent games and 53% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC finished level at 1-1 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.26 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.33 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.96 / defence 1.09 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.48 / defence 0.92, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 20% | Draw 19% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 61%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 53%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.