Al Okhdood 0-1 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Okhdood host Al Khaleej Saihat at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 7). Kick-off is Friday 22 September 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Al Okhdood — last 6 games: 1W 1D 4L, averaging 0.67 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.17 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings (17%). Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Al Okhdood at home: 0W 0D 3L from their last 3 home games — 0.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.00 lags behind their overall 0.67 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Khaleej Saihat stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Al Khaleej Saihat have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Al Khaleej Saihat's 1.20 PPG return is 0.53 points per game ahead of Al Okhdood's 0.67 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Al Okhdood in-play tendencies (last 6 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Al Khaleej Saihat in-play tendencies (last 6 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Okhdood 33% and Al Khaleej Saihat 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 17% | Al Khaleej Saihat 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 0.92 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.639 / defence 1.040 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.039 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.438. Al Okhdood's attack rating of 0.639 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.92. Data: built from Al Okhdood's last 6 games and Al Khaleej Saihat's last 36.
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 22% | Draw 26% | Al Khaleej Saihat 52%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 4.50 | Draw 3.92 | Al Khaleej Saihat 1.91. Al Khaleej Saihat hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Khaleej Saihat at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Okhdood 33% (last 3 home games) | Al Khaleej Saihat 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, matchday 7 | Venue: Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 22 September 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 22% | Draw 26% | Al Khaleej Saihat 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Al Okhdood 0.92 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.639 / def 1.040 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.039 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat FAQs
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 22 September 2023 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al Okhdood 0 - 1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Pro League fixture (matchday 7) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 22% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 52% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al Khaleej Saihat will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Okhdood's attack at 0.64x the league average against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Khaleej Saihat's attack versus Al Okhdood's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Okhdood's last 6 games and Al Khaleej Saihat's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.6%), 0-2 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
22%
4.50
26%
3.92
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
2.47
1.55
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
4.50
22%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
21%
4.73
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
5%
21.29
21%
4.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 13.1 | 10.2 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 1.55 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Okhdood's recent record stands at 1W 1D 4L from 6 games, a 0.67 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Al Khaleej Saihat, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 3L across 6 games — 0.83 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Okhdood on 0.67 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat on 0.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Okhdood have managed 0W 0D 3L from their last 3 home games — 0.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 0.67 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Al Khaleej Saihat's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across their last 3 away games, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.83 PPG overall record — Al Khaleej Saihat travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Khaleej Saihat come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Okhdood are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 1.33 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat in 100%.
Last 6 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Early Season
Al Khaleej Saihat
Early Season
Al Okhdood (Home) vs Al Khaleej Saihat (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Okhdood
Early Season
Al Khaleej Saihat
Early Season
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat Form FAQs
What form are Al Okhdood and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 1W 1D 4L in their last 6 games (0.67 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al Khaleej Saihat's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 0.00 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from September 2023. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 16 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Jan 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat won Al Khaleej Saihat 4-1 Al Okhdood.
Al Okhdood's record when hosting Al Khaleej Saihat specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al Okhdood
1
Draws
3
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Okhdood have won 2, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 May 2026: Al Okhdood 3-1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al Khaleej Saihat have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Okhdood at 33%, Al Khaleej Saihat at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Al Okhdood) and 67% (Al Khaleej Saihat).
On the defensive side: Al Okhdood have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Okhdood and Al Khaleej Saihat matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Al Okhdood's games and 100% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Okhdood and Al Khaleej Saihat matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al Okhdood's recent games and 67% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Okhdood and Al Khaleej Saihat matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Al Okhdood's recent matches and 100% of Al Khaleej Saihat's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Khaleej Saihat edge out Al Okhdood 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Khaleej Saihat beat Al Okhdood 0-1 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 0.92 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.55 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Okhdood fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.64 / defence 1.04 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.04 / defence 0.96, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 22% | Draw 26% | Al Khaleej Saihat 52%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 17%, Al Khaleej Saihat 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Okhdood 0.67 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Khaleej Saihat win broke the near-deadlock. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.