Al Wehda Club 4-0 Abha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Wehda Club at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Wehda Club vs Abha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Wehda Club and Abha meet at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Friday 22 September 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Wehda Club have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al Wehda Club have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Wehda Club's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this season.
Abha (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Abha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Abha have gone 0W 0D 10L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Al Wehda Club's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Abha's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Wehda Club lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2023, ended 2–1 with Al Wehda Club winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al Wehda Club goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Abha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wehda Club 44% versus Abha 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 44% | Abha 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 1.71 xG and Abha 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 1.167 / defence 1.179 | Abha attack 0.647 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.454. Data: 36 Al Wehda Club games / 36 Abha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 51% | Draw 24% | Abha 25%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Abha 4.00. Al Wehda Club hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Wehda Club at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Wehda Club if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Al Wehda Club 70% | Abha 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wehda Club vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 22 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 51% | Draw 24% | Abha 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Al Wehda Club 1.71 / Abha 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wehda Club attack 1.167 / def 1.179 | Abha attack 0.647 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.454 • Poisson stance: Al Wehda Club (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Al Wehda Club xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Abha xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wehda Club vs Abha kick off?
Al Wehda Club vs Abha kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 September 2023 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wehda Club vs Abha?
Al Wehda Club 4 - 0 Abha.
Where is Al Wehda Club vs Abha being played?
The match is being played at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Wehda Club vs Abha part of?
Al Wehda Club vs Abha is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Wehda Club vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Al Wehda Club a 51% chance of winning, Abha a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Wehda Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wehda Club vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al Wehda Club and Abha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wehda Club vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Abha?
Record (2 meetings): Al Wehda Club 2W | Draws 0 | Abha 0W.
What form are Al Wehda Club and Abha in?
Al Wehda Club (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Abha (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al Wehda Club's attack at 1.17x the league average against Abha's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Abha's attack (0.65x) against Al Wehda Club's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wehda Club Win
51%
1.94
24%
4.18
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Al Wehda Club xG
Total xG
2.82
1.11
Abha xG
1.94
51%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
17%
5.90
4%
22.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.3 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wehda Club vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Al Wehda Club and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Al Wehda Club and 1.11 for Abha, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wehda Club vs Abha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Wehda Club come into this having played 36 games, going 11W 8D 17L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Abha sit at 1.08 PPG from 36 outings (12W 3D 21L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Abha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Al Wehda Club against 1.08 for Abha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Wehda Club's home form reads 5W 5D 7L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Abha have taken 0.53 points per game from 17 outings (3W 0D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Abha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wehda Club come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Wehda Club are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 1.06 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wehda Club
Early Season
Abha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wehda Club and Abha in coming into this match?
Al Wehda Club have gone 11W 8D 17L in their last 36 games (1.14 PPG), while Abha have gone 12W 3D 21L in their last 36 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wehda Club at home or Abha away?
Al Wehda Club's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wehda Club at home: 1.18 PPG; Abha away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Wehda Club won 4-0 on 22 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Wehda Club have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Abha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Al Wehda Club
0
Draws
1
Abha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Abha?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Wehda Club have won 3, Abha have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Wehda Club and Abha last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2024, when Abha 1-0 Al Wehda Club.
Who has won more matches between Al Wehda Club and Abha?
Al Wehda Club have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wehda Club 53%, Abha 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Al Wehda Club) and 53% (Abha).
On the defensive side: Al Wehda Club have failed to score in 35% of games; Abha in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wehda Club home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wehda Club play Abha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Al Wehda Club's recent matches and 41% of Abha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Wehda Club vs Abha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Al Wehda Club's recent games and 53% of Abha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Wehda Club and Abha tend to score early?
Al Wehda Club have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Abha in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Wehda Club run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Abha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wehda Club beat Abha 4-0 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 1.71 xG and Abha 1.11 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Al Wehda Club beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Abha landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 1.17 / defence 1.18 against Abha attack 0.65 / defence 0.99, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 51% | Draw 24% | Abha 25%, with Al Wehda Club to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 44%, Abha 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Abha's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Wehda Club 1.14 PPG, Abha 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Wehda Club win broke the near-deadlock. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. Abha (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.