Al Taawon 1-1 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat meet at Al Taawon Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 18 April 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al Taawon's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Taawon have posted 4W 2D 4L at Al Taawon Club Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Khaleej Saihat have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al Taawon, 1 for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Al Taawon half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Al Khaleej Saihat half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 63% versus Al Khaleej Saihat 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 53% | Al Khaleej Saihat 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.34 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.157 / defence 0.915 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.857 / defence 0.827. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.441. Data: 57 Al Taawon games / 57 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 41% | Draw 28% | Al Khaleej Saihat 31%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Al Khaleej Saihat 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taawon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Al Taawon 60% | Al Khaleej Saihat 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Al Taawon Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 18 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 41% | Draw 28% | Al Khaleej Saihat 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Al Taawon 1.34 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 1.157 / def 0.915 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.857 / def 0.827 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 16:00 on Thursday 18 April 2024 at Al Taawon Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al Taawon 1 - 1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawon Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 41% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Record (3 meetings): Al Taawon 1W | Draws 1 | Al Khaleej Saihat 1W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Taawon's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Al Khaleej Saihat's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Al Khaleej Saihat's attack (0.86x) against Al Taawon's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
41%
2.44
28%
3.55
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.47
1.13
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
13%
7.57
8%
12.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.8 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.13 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Taawon come into this having played 57 games, going 29W 15D 13L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-D. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Khaleej Saihat sit at 1.14 PPG from 57 outings (18W 11D 28L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Taawon's home form reads 14W 6D 8L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Khaleej Saihat have taken 1.11 points per game from 28 outings (9W 4D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Taawon are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 1.07 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 29W 15D 13L in their last 57 games (1.79 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 18W 11D 28L in their last 57 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.71 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taawon have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Al Taawon
3
Draws
1
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 4, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Al Taawon 1-1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 68%, Al Khaleej Saihat 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Al Taawon) and 32% (Al Khaleej Saihat).
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 32% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Al Taawon's recent games and 32% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Taawon Club Stadium, Regular Season - 28, as Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.34 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.13 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.16 / defence 0.92 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.86 / defence 0.83, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 41% | Draw 28% | Al Khaleej Saihat 31%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 53%, Al Khaleej Saihat 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.