Al Okhdood 1-2 Damac – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Damac at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Okhdood face Damac.

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Match Analysis

Al Okhdood host Damac at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 28). Kick-off is Saturday 20 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Al Okhdood — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al Okhdood's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Al Okhdood are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Damac stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

Damac away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Okhdood 0.80 PPG, Damac 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Al Okhdood have won 0, Damac 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2023, ended Al Okhdood 0–2 Damac — a Damac win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Al Okhdood in-play and half-time data (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Damac in-play and half-time data (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 44% versus Damac 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 56% | Damac 44%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al Okhdood surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Damac have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.03 xG and Damac 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.836 / defence 1.196 | Damac attack 0.779 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.422. Damac's attack rating of 0.779 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.32. Data: built from Al Okhdood's last 27 games and Damac's last 57.

Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 28% | Draw 30% | Damac 42%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 3.56 | Draw 3.39 | Damac 2.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Damac at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Damac offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al Okhdood 50% (last 10 home games) | Damac 50% (last 10 away games).

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