Al-Hazm 2-3 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hazm face Al-Ittihad FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Al-Ittihad FC travel to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium to take on Al-Hazm. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 April 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hazm stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game.
Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ittihad FC are 1.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al-Hazm, 2 for Al-Ittihad FC and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Hazm trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 59% versus Al-Ittihad FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 56% | Al-Ittihad FC 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 0.92 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 2.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.675 / defence 1.423 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.151 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.429. Al-Hazm's attack strength of 0.675 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 Al-Hazm games / 57 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 13% | Draw 19% | Al-Ittihad FC 68%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 7.69 | Draw 5.26 | Al-Ittihad FC 1.47. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Hazm 50% | Al-Ittihad FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 13% | Draw 19% | Al-Ittihad FC 68% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 55% | xG Al-Hazm 0.92 / Al-Ittihad FC 2.34 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.675 / def 1.423 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.151 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.429 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
2.34
Al-Ittihad FC xG
55%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Hazm 2 - 3 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 13% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 68% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Hazm 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Ittihad FC 2W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Hazm's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad FC's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 2.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
13%
7.97
19%
5.26
68%
1.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
3.26
2.34
Al-Ittihad FC xG
7.97
13%
Home win
5.26
19%
Draw
1.46
68%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
10%
10.40
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
1%
82.88
27%
3.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 9.0 | 10.5 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 2.34 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 27 outings, Al-Hazm have picked up 0.59 PPG on a 2W 10D 15L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC's form line: 14W 5D 8L from 27 games, 1.74 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ittihad FC are the form team by 1.15 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Hazm.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Hazm have posted 0.69 PPG from 13 outings (2W 3D 8L).
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 6W 3D 4L from 13 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Hazm are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 2.41 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.89 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 2W 10D 15L in their last 27 games (0.59 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 14W 5D 8L in their last 27 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 0.69 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Al-Hazm or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hazm have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2022, when Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hazm's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al-Hazm
2
Draws
4
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 0, Al-Ittihad FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 54%, Al-Ittihad FC 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Al-Hazm) and 54% (Al-Ittihad FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC in 46%; Al-Hazm have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al-Ittihad FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Al-Hazm's recent matches and 38% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Al-Hazm's matches and 54% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al-Hazm 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Hazm 2-3 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 0.92 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 2.34 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al-Hazm beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.68 / defence 1.42 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.15 / defence 0.95, drawn from 27/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 13% | Draw 19% | Al-Ittihad FC 68%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 56%, Al-Ittihad FC 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.59. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.