Al-Qadisiyah FC 1-1 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Qadisiyah FC face Al-Ettifaq.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al-Qadisiyah FC welcome Al-Ettifaq to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 5 April 2025 at 16:05 UK time.
Form Guide
Al-Qadisiyah FC — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Al-Qadisiyah FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Al-Ettifaq have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Ettifaq's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 road games (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Al-Qadisiyah FC) versus 1.70 (Al-Ettifaq). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 0 for Al-Ettifaq and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2024, ended Al-Qadisiyah FC 2–0 Al-Ettifaq — a Al-Qadisiyah FC win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play tendencies (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 36% versus Al-Ettifaq 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 44% | Al-Ettifaq 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.15 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.903 / defence 0.772 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.166 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.325. Al-Qadisiyah FC have a tight defence (rating 0.772), which is pulling Al-Ettifaq's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 25 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 59.
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 35% | Draw 28% | Al-Ettifaq 37%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.86 | Draw 3.56 | Al-Ettifaq 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ettifaq are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Qadisiyah FC 30% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ettifaq 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, matchday 26 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 April 2025 at 16:05 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 35% | Draw 28% | Al-Ettifaq 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.15 / Al-Ettifaq 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.903 / def 0.772 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.166 / def 0.856 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Al-Ettifaq xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq FAQs
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 16:05 UK time on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 1 - 1 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq is a Pro League fixture (matchday 26) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 35% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack at 0.90x the league average against Al-Ettifaq's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 25 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
35%
2.86
28%
3.56
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
2.34
1.19
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
11%
9.43
12%
8.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 11.5 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.19 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent record stands at 16W 3D 6L from 25 games, a 2.04 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 10W 5D 10L across 25 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-W-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Qadisiyah FC by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ettifaq heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Qadisiyah FC have managed 9W 1D 2L from their last 12 home games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ettifaq's away record stands at 6W 5D 1L across their last 12 away games, a 1.92 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.40 PPG overall record — Al-Ettifaq travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.28 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Qadisiyah FC (Home) vs Al-Ettifaq (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq Form FAQs
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 16W 3D 6L in their last 25 games (2.04 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 10W 5D 10L in their last 25 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.33 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.92 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2024. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 11 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 Feb 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC won Al-Qadisiyah FC 4-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
2
Draws
1
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 September 2026: Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-3 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 25%, Al-Ettifaq 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Al-Qadisiyah FC) and 58% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent matches and 75% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent games and 58% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent matches and 75% of Al-Ettifaq's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 26, as Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.15 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.19 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.90 / defence 0.77 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.17 / defence 0.86, drawn from 25/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 35% | Draw 28% | Al-Ettifaq 37%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 44%, Al-Ettifaq 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.