Al Kholood 0-2 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Kholood vs Al Taawon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Al Taawon travel to Ar-Rass Stadium to take on Al Kholood. The game is scheduled for Friday 4 April 2025, 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Kholood — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Kholood at Ar-Rass Stadium this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taawon stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Kholood at 1.50 PPG versus Al Taawon's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al Kholood have won 0, Al Taawon 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al Kholood in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Al Taawon in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Kholood 64% versus Al Taawon 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Kholood 60% | Al Taawon 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 1.07 xG and Al Taawon 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 0.956 / defence 1.077 | Al Taawon attack 0.815 / defence 0.735. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.306. Al Taawon's defence strength of 0.735 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 25 Al Kholood games / 59 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Kholood 34% | Draw 29% | Al Taawon 38%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Al Taawon 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Al Kholood 60% | Al Taawon 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Kholood vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Ar-Rass Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 4 Apr 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Kholood 34% | Draw 29% | Al Taawon 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Al Kholood 1.07 / Al Taawon 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Al Kholood attack 0.956 / def 1.077 | Al Taawon attack 0.815 / def 0.735 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Al Kholood xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Al Taawon xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Kholood vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al Kholood vs Al Taawon kicked off at 15:30 on Friday 4 April 2025 at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Kholood vs Al Taawon?
Al Kholood 0 - 2 Al Taawon.
Where is Al Kholood vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What competition is Al Kholood vs Al Taawon part of?
Al Kholood vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Kholood vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al Kholood a 34% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Kholood vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al Kholood and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al Kholood vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al Taawon?
Record (1 meetings): Al Kholood 0W | Draws 1 | Al Taawon 0W.
What form are Al Kholood and Al Taawon in?
Al Kholood (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Al Taawon (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Kholood's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Al Taawon's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al Kholood's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
34%
2.98
29%
3.45
38%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Al Kholood xG
Total xG
2.21
1.15
Al Taawon xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.67
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
11%
9.40
13%
7.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 12.5 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Kholood vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Al Kholood and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Al Kholood and 1.15 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Kholood vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Kholood come into this having played 25 games, going 9W 4D 12L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Al Kholood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Taawon sit at 1.36 PPG from 25 outings (9W 7D 9L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Kholood on 1.24 PPG, Al Taawon on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al Kholood's home form reads 6W 2D 4L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — Al Kholood are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al Taawon have taken 1.17 points per game from 12 outings (4W 2D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Kholood come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Kholood are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.08 scored and 0.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Kholood have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al Taawon in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Kholood
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Kholood and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al Kholood have gone 9W 4D 12L in their last 25 games (1.24 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 9W 7D 9L in their last 25 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Kholood at home or Al Taawon away?
Al Kholood's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Kholood at home: 1.67 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Al Kholood or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Kholood have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Al Kholood have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Al Kholood's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Al Kholood
1
Draws
2
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al Taawon?
From 5 meetings on record, Al Kholood have won 2, Al Taawon have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Kholood and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Al Kholood 3-2 Al Taawon.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Al Taawon see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Kholood 58%, Al Taawon 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al Kholood) and 33% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon in 33%; Al Taawon in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Kholood home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Kholood play Al Taawon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Al Kholood's recent matches and 25% of Al Taawon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Kholood vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Al Kholood's recent games and 33% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Kholood and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al Kholood have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taawon cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al Kholood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al Kholood 0-2 at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.07 xG and Al Taawon 1.15 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al Kholood fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Al Taawon outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 0.96 / defence 1.08 against Al Taawon attack 0.81 / defence 0.73, drawn from 25/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 34% | Draw 29% | Al Taawon 38%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 60%, Al Taawon 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Kholood's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Taawon's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Kholood 1.24 PPG, Al Taawon 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Taawon win broke the near-deadlock. Al Kholood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Taawon (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.