Al Kholood 0-2 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Kholood face Al Taawon.

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Analysis & Preview

Al Taawon travel to Ar-Rass Stadium to take on Al Kholood in Pro League (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Friday 4 April 2025 at 16:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Al Kholood — last 10 games: 5W 0D 5L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al Kholood at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Taawon stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Al Taawon away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Kholood at 1.50 PPG versus Al Taawon's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Al Kholood have won 0, Al Taawon 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2024, ended Al Kholood 1–1 Al Taawon — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Al Kholood in-play tendencies (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Al Taawon in-play tendencies (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Kholood 64% versus Al Taawon 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Kholood 60% | Al Taawon 32%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 1.07 xG and Al Taawon 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 0.956 / defence 1.077 | Al Taawon attack 0.815 / defence 0.735. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.306. Al Taawon bring a tight defence (rating 0.735, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al Kholood's projected output down. Data: built from Al Kholood's last 25 games and Al Taawon's last 59.

Result probabilities: Al Kholood 34% | Draw 29% | Al Taawon 38%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 2.98 | Draw 3.45 | Al Taawon 2.67. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Kholood 60% (last 10 home games) | Al Taawon 20% (last 10 away games).

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