Al-Fayha 2-1 Al-Qadisiyah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al-Fayha welcome Al-Qadisiyah FC to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 12 April 2025 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Al-Fayha — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Al-Fayha's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Al-Qadisiyah FC have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Qadisiyah FC — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Al-Fayha, 1 for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Nov 2024, ended Al-Fayha 0–2 Al-Qadisiyah FC — a Al-Qadisiyah FC win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al-Fayha in-play and half-time data (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 15% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play and half-time data (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 35% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Fayha 31% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 0.80 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.570 / defence 0.779 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.994 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.336. Al-Fayha's attack rating of 0.570 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.80. Al-Fayha have a tight defence (rating 0.779), which is pulling Al-Qadisiyah FC's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Fayha's last 60 games and Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 26.
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 27% | Draw 33% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 40%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 3.66 | Draw 3.06 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.83 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Fayha's last 10 home games and Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Fayha 30% (last 10 home games) | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 27 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 April 2025 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 27% | Draw 33% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% (Under 72%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Al-Fayha 0.80 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.570 / def 0.779 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.994 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC FAQs
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 12 April 2025 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Fayha 2 - 1 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 27) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 27% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 40% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (72%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Fayha's attack at 0.57x the league average against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 0.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Fayha's last 60 games and Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
27%
3.66
33%
3.06
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
1.83
1.03
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
3.66
27%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.80
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
45%
2.23
Win to Nil
10%
10.31
18%
5.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 16.5 | 8.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.2 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.03 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fayha come into this having played 26 games, going 5W 11D 10L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Al-Qadisiyah FC sit at 2.00 PPG from 26 outings (16W 4D 6L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-D across their last five.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Fayha's home form reads 2W 6D 5L across their last 13 home games, a 0.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken 1.77 points per game from their last 13 away games (7W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fayha are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 1.46 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
Al-Fayha (Home) vs Al-Qadisiyah FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Form FAQs
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 5W 11D 10L in their last 26 games (1.00 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 16W 4D 6L in their last 26 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 0.92 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2024. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 9 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Jan 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC won Al-Qadisiyah FC 5-0 Al-Fayha.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Qadisiyah FC specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
0
Draws
3
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 May 2026: Al-Fayha 1-2 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 31%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 15% for Al-Fayha and 54% for Al-Qadisiyah FC.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Al-Qadisiyah FC in 46%; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 54% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 46% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 15% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 54% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 77% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Fayha defy the odds to beat Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-1 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 0.80 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.03 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al-Fayha beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.57 / defence 0.78 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.99 / defence 0.99, drawn from 60/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 27% | Draw 33% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 40%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Al-Fayha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 31%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Al-Fayha winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.54 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.