Al Okhdood 1-0 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Okhdood host Al-Ettifaq at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 15). Kick-off is Saturday 2 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Al Okhdood have gone 3W 0D 7L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
At home, Al Okhdood have gone 1W 0D 6L in their last 7 home games (0.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Ettifaq stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Ettifaq's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Al-Ettifaq's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Al Okhdood's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Al Okhdood in-play and half-time data (last 14 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Al-Ettifaq in-play and half-time data (last 14 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 43% versus Al-Ettifaq 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 50% | Al-Ettifaq 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 0.82 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.667 / defence 1.118 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.799 / defence 0.790. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.496. Al Okhdood's attack rating of 0.667 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. Al-Ettifaq bring a tight defence (rating 0.790, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al Okhdood's projected output down. Al-Ettifaq's attack rating of 0.799 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.34. Data: built from Al Okhdood's last 14 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 44.
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 21% | Draw 31% | Al-Ettifaq 47%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 4.66 | Draw 3.22 | Al-Ettifaq 2.11. Al-Ettifaq hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Okhdood 43% (last 7 home games) | Al-Ettifaq 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, matchday 15 | Venue: Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 21% | Draw 31% | Al-Ettifaq 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Al Okhdood 0.82 / Al-Ettifaq 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.667 / def 1.118 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.799 / def 0.790 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.496 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Al-Ettifaq xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq FAQs
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al Okhdood 1 - 0 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq is a Pro League fixture (matchday 15) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 21% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 47% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al-Ettifaq will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Okhdood's attack at 0.67x the league average against Al-Ettifaq's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al Okhdood's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Okhdood's last 14 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
21%
4.66
31%
3.22
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
2.15
1.34
Al-Ettifaq xG
4.66
21%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
6%
17.76
21%
4.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 15.5 | 10.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 1.34 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Okhdood come into this having played 14 games, going 3W 1D 10L for 0.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Al-Ettifaq sit at 1.64 PPG from 14 outings (6W 5D 3L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-D across their last five.
Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.93 PPG clear of Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Okhdood's home form reads 1W 0D 6L across their last 7 home games, a 0.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ettifaq have taken 1.57 points per game from their last 7 away games (3W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Okhdood are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.43 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 14 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al Okhdood (Home) vs Al-Ettifaq (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Okhdood
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq Form FAQs
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 3W 1D 10L in their last 14 games (0.71 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 6W 5D 3L in their last 14 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Ettifaq's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 0.43 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 30 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ettifaq have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Al Okhdood's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al Okhdood
1
Draws
4
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Ettifaq?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Okhdood have won 1, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 April 2026: Al Okhdood 1-3 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Al-Ettifaq see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Okhdood 43%, Al-Ettifaq 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Al Okhdood) and 29% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq in 43%; Al Okhdood have failed to score in 57% of games; Al-Ettifaq in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Okhdood and Al-Ettifaq matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Al Okhdood's recent matches and 29% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al Okhdood and Al-Ettifaq matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Al Okhdood's recent games and 29% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Okhdood and Al-Ettifaq matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Al Okhdood's recent matches and 57% of Al-Ettifaq's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Okhdood defy the odds to beat Al-Ettifaq 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Okhdood beat Al-Ettifaq 1-0 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 0.82 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.34 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ettifaq landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.67 / defence 1.12 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.80 / defence 0.79, drawn from 14/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 21% | Draw 31% | Al-Ettifaq 47%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Al Okhdood win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 50%, Al-Ettifaq 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.71. Form was overturned, with Al Okhdood winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.