Al Wehda Club 2-0 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Wehda Club at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Wehda Club vs Al Okhdood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Okhdood make the trip to King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium to face Al Wehda Club in Pro League, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 December 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Al Wehda Club (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Al Wehda Club have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Okhdood have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Okhdood away from home this season: 2W 1D 4L from 7 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Al Wehda Club against 0.90 for Al Okhdood. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Al Wehda Club goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
Al Okhdood goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wehda Club 67% versus Al Okhdood 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 80% | Al Okhdood 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 2.19 xG and Al Okhdood 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 1.202 / defence 1.185 | Al Okhdood attack 0.711 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.570 / away 1.407. Data: 45 Al Wehda Club games / 15 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 60% | Draw 21% | Al Okhdood 19%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Al Okhdood 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Al Wehda Club (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.19 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Wehda Club are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.38 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Al Wehda Club 70% | Al Okhdood 43% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wehda Club vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Dec 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 60% | Draw 21% | Al Okhdood 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 62% | xG Al Wehda Club 2.19 / Al Okhdood 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wehda Club attack 1.202 / def 1.185 | Al Okhdood attack 0.711 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.570 / away 1.407 • Poisson stance: Al Wehda Club (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Al Wehda Club xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Al Okhdood xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wehda Club vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al Wehda Club vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 9 December 2023 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wehda Club vs Al Okhdood?
Al Wehda Club 2 - 0 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al Wehda Club vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Wehda Club vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al Wehda Club vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Wehda Club vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al Wehda Club a 60% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al Wehda Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wehda Club vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al Wehda Club and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wehda Club vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al Okhdood?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al Okhdood in?
Al Wehda Club (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Al Okhdood (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Wehda Club's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Al Okhdood's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.19. Flip it around — Al Okhdood's attack (0.71x) against Al Wehda Club's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 45/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wehda Club Win
60%
1.68
21%
4.67
19%
5.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Al Wehda Club xG
Total xG
3.38
1.19
Al Okhdood xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
5.26
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
11%
8.98
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
2%
47.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wehda Club vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Al Wehda Club and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Al Wehda Club and 1.19 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wehda Club vs Al Okhdood?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 15 outings, Al Wehda Club have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 6W 1D 8L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Wehda Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Okhdood's form line: 4W 1D 10L from 15 games, 0.87 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Wehda Club are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Okhdood.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Wehda Club have posted 1.43 PPG from 7 outings (3W 1D 3L).
On the road, Al Okhdood have gone 2W 1D 4L from 7 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wehda Club come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Wehda Club are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 0.73 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wehda Club have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wehda Club
Blended
Al Okhdood
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al Wehda Club have gone 6W 1D 8L in their last 15 games (1.27 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 4W 1D 10L in their last 15 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wehda Club at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al Wehda Club's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wehda Club at home: 1.43 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Wehda Club have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al Wehda Club
1
Draws
1
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al Okhdood?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Wehda Club have won 2, Al Okhdood have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Wehda Club and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2025, when Al Okhdood 1-2 Al Wehda Club.
Who has won more matches between Al Wehda Club and Al Okhdood?
Al Wehda Club have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al Okhdood see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wehda Club 71%, Al Okhdood 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Al Wehda Club and 43% for Al Okhdood. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 71% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Okhdood in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wehda Club home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wehda Club play Al Okhdood?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Al Wehda Club's games and 43% of Al Okhdood's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Wehda Club vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Al Wehda Club's matches and 43% of Al Okhdood's.
Do Al Wehda Club and Al Okhdood tend to score early?
Al Wehda Club have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Al Okhdood in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wehda Club cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Okhdood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wehda Club beat Al Okhdood 2-0 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 2.19 xG and Al Okhdood 1.19 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al Okhdood landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 1.20 / defence 1.19 against Al Okhdood attack 0.71 / defence 1.16, drawn from 45/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 60% | Draw 21% | Al Okhdood 19%, with Al Wehda Club to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 80%, Al Okhdood 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wehda Club arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.87. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.