Al-Ettifaq 1-1 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC make the trip to Al Ettifaq Club Stadium to face Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Friday 24 November 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 5W 3D 2L at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Ittihad FC's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Al-Ettifaq, 1.50 for Al-Ittihad FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Al-Ittihad FC hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Feb 2023, ended 0–3 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ittihad FC have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 42% versus Al-Ittihad FC 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 44% | Al-Ittihad FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 0.99 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.011 / defence 0.976 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.070 / defence 0.631. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.365. Al-Ittihad FC's defence strength of 0.631 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 Al-Ettifaq games / 43 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 25% | Draw 28% | Al-Ittihad FC 46%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.17. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 60% | Al-Ittihad FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Al Ettifaq Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 24 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 25% | Draw 28% | Al-Ittihad FC 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Al-Ettifaq 0.99 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.011 / def 0.976 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.070 / def 0.631 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Al-Ittihad FC xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 24 November 2023 at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ettifaq 1 - 1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 25% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Ittihad FC 3W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Ettifaq's attack rating (1.01) and Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating (0.63), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad FC's attack (1.07x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
25%
3.93
28%
3.55
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.42
1.43
Al-Ittihad FC xG
3.93
25%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
6%
16.35
17%
5.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 12.7 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.43 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Ettifaq's recent record stands at 16W 11D 16L from 43 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC, meanwhile, have gone 29W 9D 5L across 43 games — 2.23 PPG, with L-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 0.86 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ettifaq heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Ettifaq have managed 10W 5D 6L from 21 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad FC's away record stands at 13W 6D 2L across 21 trips, a 2.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.98 scored and 0.58 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC in 58% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 16W 11D 16L in their last 43 games (1.37 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 29W 9D 5L in their last 43 (2.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.67 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 2.14 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 58%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-5 on 10 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Ettifaq
2
Draws
6
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 1-3 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 52%, Al-Ittihad FC 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Al-Ettifaq) and 57% (Al-Ittihad FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Ittihad FC in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Ittihad FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 43% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 57% of Al-Ittihad FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium, Regular Season - 14, as Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 0.99 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.43 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 1.01 / defence 0.98 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.07 / defence 0.63, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 25% | Draw 28% | Al-Ittihad FC 46%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 44%, Al-Ittihad FC 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.