Al-Fateh 1-1 Al-Qadisiyah FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Al-Qadisiyah FC make the trip to Al Fateh Club Stadium to face Al-Fateh in Pro League (matchday 18). The match kicks off on Saturday 1 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time.

Form

Al-Fateh (all games): 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters, Al-Fateh have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's record over their last 10 games: 9W 0D 1L (2.70 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 2L across their last 9 road games (2.11 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 9 away games (67%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 2.11 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Qadisiyah FC are 2.20 PPG clear of Al-Fateh over their recent games (2.70 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Al-Fateh, 1 for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 23 Aug 2024, ended Al-Fateh 0–3 Al-Qadisiyah FC — a Al-Qadisiyah FC win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Al-Fateh — key trading statistics (last 17 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 89% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).

Al-Qadisiyah FC — key trading statistics (last 17 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 65% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 65% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 0.99 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.903 / defence 1.159 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.097 / defence 0.737. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.339. Al-Qadisiyah FC bring a tight defence (rating 0.737, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al-Fateh's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Fateh's last 51 games and Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 17.

Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 22% | Draw 24% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 54%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 4.58 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.85. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Fateh 90% (last 10 home games) | Al-Qadisiyah FC 33% (last 9 away games).

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