Al-Ahli Jeddah 2-0 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 82% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh meet at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Friday 7 February 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all games): 8W 0D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 8W 1D 1L at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's away record: 0W 1D 9L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Ahli Jeddah's 2.40 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of Al-Fateh's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 2 for Al-Fateh and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Al-Fateh winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al-Ahli Jeddah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Al-Fateh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ahli Jeddah 48% and Al-Fateh 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 52% | Al-Fateh 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.13 xG and Al-Fateh 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.320 / defence 0.821 | Al-Fateh attack 0.779 / defence 1.505. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.338. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.320 — their λ of 3.13 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Fateh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.505 — this is suppressing Al-Ahli Jeddah's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 52 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 82% | Draw 11% | Al-Fateh 7%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.22 | Draw 9.09 | Al-Fateh 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (82%) — a 75pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.99. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.99 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 82% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.99 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Al-Fateh 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 7 Feb 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 82% | Draw 11% | Al-Fateh 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 55% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.13 / Al-Fateh 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.320 / def 0.821 | Al-Fateh attack 0.779 / def 1.505 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (82%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.13
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Al-Fateh xG
55%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 7 February 2025 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 2 - 0 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 82% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 7% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 1W | Draws 2 | Al-Fateh 2W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Ahli Jeddah's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (1.50x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.13. Flip it around — Al-Fateh's attack (0.78x) against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-0, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.1%), 3-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
82%
1.22
11%
8.83
7%
14.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.13
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
3.99
0.85
Al-Fateh xG
1.22
82%
Home win
8.83
11%
Draw
14.53
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
4%
22.92
Win to Nil
35%
2.87
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.5 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 3.13 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0.85 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 82%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, Al-Ahli Jeddah have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 30W 10D 12L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fateh's form line: 14W 13D 25L from 52 games, 1.06 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Fateh.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 2.24 PPG from 25 outings (17W 5D 3L).
On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 6W 5D 14L from 25 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.40 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh in 75%.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 30W 10D 12L in their last 52 games (1.92 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 14W 13D 25L in their last 52 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.24 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 6%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Fateh won 5-1 on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
2
Draws
3
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, Al-Fateh have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-1 Al-Fateh.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 44%, Al-Fateh 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 44% for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 76% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's games and 76% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's matches and 76% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ahli Jeddah cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Fateh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Fateh 2-0 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.13 xG and Al-Fateh 0.85 xG, a combined 3.99. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Al-Fateh landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.32 / defence 0.82 against Al-Fateh attack 0.78 / defence 1.50, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 82% | Draw 11% | Al-Fateh 7%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 82%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 52%, Al-Fateh 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.