Al-Ittihad FC 4-3 Al Kholood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Kholood encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Al Kholood travel to Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium to take on Al-Ittihad FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 February 2025, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 10W 0D 0L this season (10 games, 3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Al-Ittihad FC are significantly better at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Kholood stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Kholood have gone 3W 2D 4L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.22 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Al-Ittihad FC have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ittihad FC register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Al Kholood in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al-Ittihad FC have won 1, Al Kholood 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Al Kholood trading profile (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad FC 65% and Al Kholood 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 65% | Al Kholood 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 2.36 xG and Al Kholood 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.459 / defence 0.810 | Al Kholood attack 0.854 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.332. Al-Ittihad FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.459 — their λ of 2.36 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 51 Al-Ittihad FC games / 17 Al Kholood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 69% | Draw 18% | Al Kholood 13%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.45 | Draw 5.56 | Al Kholood 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (69%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 80% | Al Kholood 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Kholood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 69% | Draw 18% | Al Kholood 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 55% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 2.36 / Al Kholood 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.459 / def 0.810 | Al Kholood attack 0.854 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.36
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Al Kholood xG
55%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Kholood kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Kholood kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Kholood?
Al-Ittihad FC 4 - 3 Al Kholood.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Kholood being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Kholood part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Kholood is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Kholood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 69% chance of winning, Al Kholood a 13% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Kholood?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al Kholood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Kholood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Kholood?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 1W | Draws 0 | Al Kholood 0W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Kholood in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Al Kholood (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Ittihad FC's attacking strength (1.46x league average) is weighed against Al Kholood's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.36. The same calculation in reverse, Al Kholood's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
69%
1.44
18%
5.69
13%
7.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.36
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.29
0.92
Al Kholood xG
1.44
69%
Home win
5.69
18%
Draw
7.70
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
9%
10.63
Win to Nil
28%
3.62
1%
81.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Kholood?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Kholood expected to score?
The model projects 2.36 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 0.92 for Al Kholood, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Kholood?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ittihad FC come into this having played 17 games, going 14W 1D 2L for 2.53 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Kholood sit at 1.12 PPG from 17 outings (5W 4D 8L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Al Kholood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.41 PPG clear of Al Kholood — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Ittihad FC's home form reads 9W 0D 0L across 9 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.53 PPG overall — Al-Ittihad FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al Kholood have taken 1.22 points per game from 9 outings (3W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.35 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Al Kholood are on 1.24 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al Kholood
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Kholood in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 14W 1D 2L in their last 17 games (2.53 PPG), while Al Kholood have gone 5W 4D 8L in their last 17 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al Kholood away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 3.00 PPG; Al Kholood away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al Kholood been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Al Kholood in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Jan 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al Kholood specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Al-Ittihad FC
2
Draws
0
Al Kholood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Kholood?
From 5 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 3, Al Kholood have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al Kholood last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 1-1 Al Kholood.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Kholood?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Ittihad FC at 78%, Al Kholood at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Al-Ittihad FC and 44% for Al Kholood. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al Kholood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al Kholood?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Al-Ittihad FC's games and 67% of Al Kholood's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Kholood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 44% of Al Kholood's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al Kholood tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Kholood in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al Kholood 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Kholood 4-3 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 2.36 xG and Al Kholood 0.92 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Kholood outscored their 0.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.46 / defence 0.81 against Al Kholood attack 0.85 / defence 1.09, drawn from 51/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 69% | Draw 18% | Al Kholood 13%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 65%, Al Kholood 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Kholood's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.53 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 3.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Kholood (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.