Al Shabab 1-3 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Khaleej Saihat make the trip to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium to face Al Shabab in Pro League, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 September 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Shabab have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al Shabab have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Shabab at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Al Shabab are significantly better at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Khaleej Saihat (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al Khaleej Saihat have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Khaleej Saihat away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Al Khaleej Saihat are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Al Shabab 2W, Al Khaleej Saihat 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2023, ended 3–2 with Al Shabab winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al Shabab goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Al Khaleej Saihat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 56% versus Al Khaleej Saihat 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 65% | Al Khaleej Saihat 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.35 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 0.980 / defence 0.943 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.933 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.344. Data: 34 Al Shabab games / 34 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 41% | Draw 27% | Al Khaleej Saihat 33%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Al Khaleej Saihat 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Khaleej Saihat (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Shabab if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al Shabab 50% | Al Khaleej Saihat 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 41% | Draw 27% | Al Khaleej Saihat 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Al Shabab 1.35 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 0.980 / def 0.943 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.933 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 2 September 2023 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al Shabab 1 - 3 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 41% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al Shabab and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Record (2 meetings): Al Shabab 2W | Draws 0 | Al Khaleej Saihat 0W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Shabab's attack rating (0.98) and Al Khaleej Saihat's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Khaleej Saihat's attack (0.93x) against Al Shabab's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
41%
2.47
27%
3.73
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.53
1.18
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
12%
8.05
8%
11.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.7 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.18 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Shabab come into this having played 34 games, going 17W 7D 10L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Al Shabab, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Khaleej Saihat sit at 0.97 PPG from 34 outings (9W 6D 19L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Shabab carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Shabab's home form reads 10W 4D 3L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Khaleej Saihat have taken 0.71 points per game from 17 outings (3W 3D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Shabab are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 1.00 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Early Season
Al Khaleej Saihat
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 17W 7D 10L in their last 34 games (1.71 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 9W 6D 19L in their last 34 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al Shabab's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 2.00 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al Khaleej Saihat been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Al Khaleej Saihat in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Shabab won 4-0 on 15 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Shabab have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Al Shabab
2
Draws
2
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 4, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat 0-0 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 35% (Al Shabab) and 29% (Al Khaleej Saihat) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Al Shabab) and 35% (Al Khaleej Saihat).
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Al Khaleej Saihat in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 29% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Al Shabab's recent games and 35% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Shabab and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Khaleej Saihat cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Shabab.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Khaleej Saihat beat Al Shabab 1-3 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.35 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.18 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 0.98 / defence 0.94 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.93 / defence 1.12, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 41% | Draw 27% | Al Khaleej Saihat 33%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Al Khaleej Saihat win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 65%, Al Khaleej Saihat 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Al Khaleej Saihat winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Shabab (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.