Moreirense 5-2 Portimonense – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Moreirense at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Moreirense face Portimonense.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Moreirense host Portimonense at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas in Primeira Liga (matchday 14). Kick-off is Sunday 17 December 2023 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Moreirense — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Moreirense at home: 2W 2D 2L from their last 6 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from their last 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Portimonense have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Portimonense's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Moreirense 1.80 PPG, Portimonense 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Moreirense, 2 for Portimonense and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 23 Apr 2022, ended Moreirense 0–1 Portimonense — a Portimonense win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Moreirense in-play tendencies (last 13 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Portimonense in-play tendencies (last 13 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Moreirense 38% versus Portimonense 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Moreirense 38% | Portimonense 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Moreirense 1.42 xG and Portimonense 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Moreirense attack 0.735 / defence 0.857 | Portimonense attack 0.866 / defence 1.274. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.235. Moreirense's attack rating of 0.735 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.42. Portimonense's defence rating of 1.274 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Moreirense's projected output up. Data: built from Moreirense's last 13 games and Portimonense's last 47.
Result probabilities: Moreirense 49% | Draw 27% | Portimonense 24%. Fair-value odds: Moreirense 2.06 | Draw 3.68 | Portimonense 4.12. Moreirense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Moreirense are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Moreirense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Moreirense 50% (last 6 home games) | Portimonense 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Moreirense vs Portimonense | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 14 | Venue: Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas • Kick-off: Sunday 17 December 2023 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Moreirense 49% | Draw 27% | Portimonense 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Moreirense 1.42 / Portimonense 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Moreirense attack 0.735 / def 0.857 | Portimonense attack 0.866 / def 1.274 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Moreirense (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Moreirense xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Portimonense xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Moreirense vs Portimonense FAQs
What time does Moreirense vs Portimonense kick off?
Moreirense vs Portimonense kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Sunday 17 December 2023 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What was the final score in Moreirense vs Portimonense?
Moreirense 5 - 2 Portimonense.
Where is Moreirense vs Portimonense being played?
The match is being played at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What competition is Moreirense vs Portimonense part of?
Moreirense vs Portimonense is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 14) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Moreirense vs Portimonense?
Our statistical model gives Moreirense a 49% chance of winning, Portimonense a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Moreirense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Moreirense vs Portimonense?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Moreirense and Portimonense will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Moreirense vs Portimonense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Moreirense's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Portimonense's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Portimonense's attack versus Moreirense's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Moreirense's last 13 games and Portimonense's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Moreirense Win
49%
2.06
27%
3.68
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Moreirense xG
Total xG
2.33
0.92
Portimonense xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
6%
17.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.6 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Moreirense vs Portimonense Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Moreirense vs Portimonense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Moreirense and Portimonense expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Moreirense and 0.92 for Portimonense, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Moreirense vs Portimonense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Moreirense's recent record stands at 6W 4D 3L from 13 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-D in the last five.
Portimonense, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 6L across 13 games — 1.15 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Moreirense by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Portimonense heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Moreirense have managed 2W 2D 2L from their last 6 home games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Portimonense's away record stands at 2W 1D 3L across their last 6 away games, a 1.17 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Moreirense are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Portimonense are on 1.08 scored and 2.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Portimonense in 69%.
Defensively: Moreirense have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Moreirense
Blended
Portimonense
Blended
Moreirense (Home) vs Portimonense (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Moreirense
Blended
Portimonense
Blended
❓ Moreirense vs Portimonense Form FAQs
What form are Moreirense and Portimonense in coming into this match?
Moreirense have gone 6W 4D 3L in their last 13 games (1.69 PPG), while Portimonense have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Moreirense at home or Portimonense away?
Moreirense's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Moreirense at home: 1.33 PPG; Portimonense away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Moreirense or Portimonense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Moreirense have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, Portimonense in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent in our data was on 28 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Moreirense have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Dec 2023, when Moreirense won Moreirense 5-2 Portimonense.
Moreirense's record when hosting Portimonense specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Moreirense
0
Draws
2
Portimonense
Recent Meetings
❓ Moreirense vs Portimonense H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and Portimonense?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Moreirense have won 2, Portimonense have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Moreirense and Portimonense last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 April 2024: Portimonense 0-2 Moreirense.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Moreirense see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Portimonense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Moreirense 50%, Portimonense 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Moreirense) and 50% (Portimonense).
On the defensive side: Moreirense keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Portimonense in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Moreirense home games / Portimonense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Moreirense vs Portimonense Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Moreirense and Portimonense matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Moreirense's games and 67% of Portimonense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Moreirense and Portimonense matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Moreirense's recent games and 50% of Portimonense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Moreirense and Portimonense matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Moreirense's recent matches and 83% of Portimonense's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Moreirense run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Portimonense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Moreirense beat Portimonense 5-2 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Regular Season - 14, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Moreirense 1.42 xG and Portimonense 0.92 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Moreirense beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Portimonense outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moreirense attack 0.73 / defence 0.86 against Portimonense attack 0.87 / defence 1.27, drawn from 13/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Moreirense 49% | Draw 27% | Portimonense 24%, with Moreirense to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Moreirense 38%, Portimonense 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Moreirense's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Portimonense's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Moreirense arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. Moreirense (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Portimonense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Primeira Liga fixtures — matchday 14
All Primeira Liga fixtures →
More Portuguese football predictions →