Vizela 0-0 Moreirense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Moreirense at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vizela vs Moreirense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Vizela welcome Moreirense to Estádio Do Vizela in Primeira Liga (matchday 15). Kick-off is Saturday 23 December 2023 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Vizela stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Vizela have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Moreirense — last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Moreirense away from home: 4W 2D 1L from their last 7 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from their last 7 away games (57%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Moreirense's 2.10 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Vizela's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Vizela, 2 for Moreirense and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 14 May 2022, ended Vizela 1–4 Moreirense — a Moreirense win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Vizela in-play and half-time data (last 14 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Moreirense in-play and half-time data (last 14 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vizela 57% versus Moreirense 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vizela 50% | Moreirense 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vizela 0.90 xG and Moreirense 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vizela attack 0.775 / defence 1.160 | Moreirense attack 0.905 / defence 0.763. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.244. Vizela's attack rating of 0.775 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.90. Moreirense bring a tight defence (rating 0.763, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Vizela's projected output down. Data: built from Vizela's last 48 games and Moreirense's last 14.
Result probabilities: Vizela 26% | Draw 28% | Moreirense 46%. Fair-value odds: Vizela 3.87 | Draw 3.53 | Moreirense 2.18. Moreirense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Moreirense at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Moreirense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Vizela 60% (last 10 home games) | Moreirense 29% (last 7 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vizela vs Moreirense | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 15 | Venue: Estádio Do Vizela • Kick-off: Saturday 23 December 2023 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vizela 26% | Draw 28% | Moreirense 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Vizela 0.90 / Moreirense 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Vizela attack 0.775 / def 1.160 | Moreirense attack 0.905 / def 0.763 | league avg home 1.528 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Moreirense (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Vizela xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Moreirense xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vizela vs Moreirense FAQs
What time does Vizela vs Moreirense kick off?
Vizela vs Moreirense kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 23 December 2023 at Estádio Do Vizela.
What was the final score in Vizela vs Moreirense?
Vizela 0 - 0 Moreirense.
Where is Vizela vs Moreirense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Vizela.
What competition is Vizela vs Moreirense part of?
Vizela vs Moreirense is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 15) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vizela vs Moreirense?
Our statistical model gives Vizela a 26% chance of winning, Moreirense a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Moreirense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vizela vs Moreirense?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Vizela and Moreirense will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Vizela vs Moreirense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Vizela's attack rating (0.78) and Moreirense's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Moreirense's attack versus Vizela's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Vizela's last 48 games and Moreirense's last 14 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Moreirense Win
26%
3.87
28%
3.53
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Vizela xG
Total xG
2.21
1.31
Moreirense xG
3.87
26%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
7%
14.28
19%
5.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 14.3 | 9.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vizela vs Moreirense Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vizela vs Moreirense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Vizela and Moreirense expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Vizela and 1.31 for Moreirense, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Vizela vs Moreirense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vizela come into this having played 14 games, going 2W 5D 7L for 0.79 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Moreirense sit at 1.79 PPG from 14 outings (7W 4D 3L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five.
Moreirense carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Vizela — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Vizela's home form reads 1W 2D 4L across their last 7 home games, a 0.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Moreirense have taken 2.00 points per game from their last 7 away games (4W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Moreirense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vizela are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Moreirense are on 1.43 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Moreirense in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vizela
Blended
Moreirense
Blended
Vizela (Home) vs Moreirense (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vizela
Blended
Moreirense
Blended
❓ Vizela vs Moreirense Form FAQs
What form are Vizela and Moreirense in coming into this match?
Vizela have gone 2W 5D 7L in their last 14 games (0.79 PPG), while Moreirense have gone 7W 4D 3L in their last 14 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vizela at home or Moreirense away?
Moreirense's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vizela at home: 0.71 PPG; Moreirense away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Vizela or Moreirense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vizela have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Moreirense in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2022. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent in our data was on 3 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 May 2022, when Moreirense won Moreirense 4-1 Vizela.
Vizela's record when hosting Moreirense specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Vizela
1
Draws
3
Moreirense
Recent Meetings
❓ Vizela vs Moreirense H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Moreirense?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Vizela have won 0, Moreirense have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Vizela and Moreirense last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 May 2024: Moreirense 1-0 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Vizela and Moreirense?
Moreirense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vizela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Moreirense see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vizela 57%, Moreirense 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Vizela) and 43% (Moreirense).
On the defensive side: Moreirense in 57%; Vizela have failed to score in 29% of games; Moreirense in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vizela home games / Moreirense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Vizela vs Moreirense Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Vizela and Moreirense matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Vizela's recent matches and 29% of Moreirense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Vizela and Moreirense matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Vizela's recent games and 43% of Moreirense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vizela and Moreirense matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Vizela's recent matches and 57% of Moreirense's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Vizela's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Do Vizela, Regular Season - 15, as Vizela and Moreirense drew 0-0 in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vizela 0.90 xG and Moreirense 1.31 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vizela fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Moreirense landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vizela attack 0.78 / defence 1.16 against Moreirense attack 0.91 / defence 0.76, drawn from 48/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vizela 26% | Draw 28% | Moreirense 46%, with Moreirense to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vizela 50%, Moreirense 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vizela's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Moreirense's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Moreirense arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Vizela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. Moreirense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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