Farense 0-0 Estrela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Farense at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Farense face Estrela.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Farense host Estrela at Estádio de São Lúis in Primeira Liga (matchday 14). Kick-off is Friday 15 December 2023 at 20:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Farense have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Farense's home record over their last 7 home games: 3W 1D 3L (1.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from their last 7 home games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Estrela — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Estrela have posted 1W 3D 3L from their last 7 away outings — 0.86 PPG. Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Farense at 1.40 PPG versus Estrela's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Farense in-play and half-time data (last 13 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Estrela in-play and half-time data (last 13 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Farense 54% versus Estrela 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Farense 62% | Estrela 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Farense 1.60 xG and Estrela 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Farense attack 0.986 / defence 1.062 | Estrela attack 0.903 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.274. Data: built from Farense's last 13 games and Estrela's last 13.
Result probabilities: Farense 46% | Draw 25% | Estrela 29%. Fair-value odds: Farense 2.17 | Draw 4.05 | Estrela 3.43. Farense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Farense at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Farense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Farense's last 7 home games and Estrela's last 7 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Farense 43% (last 7 home games) | Estrela 71% (last 7 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Farense vs Estrela | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 14 | Venue: Estádio de São Lúis • Kick-off: Friday 15 December 2023 at 20:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Farense 46% | Draw 25% | Estrela 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Farense 1.60 / Estrela 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Farense attack 0.986 / def 1.062 | Estrela attack 0.903 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Farense (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Farense xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Estrela xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Farense vs Estrela FAQs
What time does Farense vs Estrela kick off?
Farense vs Estrela kicked off at 20:15 UK time on Friday 15 December 2023 at Estádio de São Lúis.
What was the final score in Farense vs Estrela?
Farense 0 - 0 Estrela.
Where is Farense vs Estrela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Lúis.
What competition is Farense vs Estrela part of?
Farense vs Estrela is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 14) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Farense vs Estrela?
Our statistical model gives Farense a 46% chance of winning, Estrela a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Farense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Farense vs Estrela?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Farense and Estrela will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Farense vs Estrela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Farense's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Estrela's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Estrela's attack versus Farense's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Farense's last 13 games and Estrela's last 13 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Farense Win
46%
2.17
25%
4.05
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Farense xG
Total xG
2.82
1.22
Estrela xG
2.17
46%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
14%
7.35
6%
16.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.6 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Farense vs Estrela Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Farense vs Estrela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Farense and Estrela expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Farense and 1.22 for Estrela, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Farense vs Estrela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 13 outings, Farense have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 5W 2D 6L record — W-W-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Estrela's form line: 4W 3D 6L from 13 games, 1.15 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Farense on 1.31 PPG, Estrela on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Farense have posted 1.67 PPG from their last 6 home games (3W 1D 2L).
On the road, Estrela have gone 1W 3D 2L from their last 6 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Farense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Farense are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Estrela are on 1.15 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 13 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Farense
Blended
Estrela
Blended
Farense (Home) vs Estrela (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Farense
Blended
Estrela
Blended
❓ Farense vs Estrela Form FAQs
What form are Farense and Estrela in coming into this match?
Farense have gone 5W 2D 6L in their last 13 games (1.31 PPG), while Estrela have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Farense at home or Estrela away?
Farense's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Farense at home: 1.67 PPG; Estrela away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from December 2023. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent in our data was on 13 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Farense have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Apr 2024, when Farense won Estrela 0-3 Farense.
Farense's record when hosting Estrela specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Farense
1
Draws
0
Estrela
Recent Meetings
❓ Farense vs Estrela H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and Estrela?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Farense have won 3, Estrela have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Farense and Estrela last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 April 2025: Estrela 0-1 Farense.
Who has won more matches between Farense and Estrela?
Farense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Farense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Estrela see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Farense 50%, Estrela 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Farense) and 33% (Estrela).
On the defensive side: Farense keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Farense home games / Estrela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Farense vs Estrela Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Farense and Estrela matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Farense's games and 67% of Estrela's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Farense and Estrela matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Farense's recent games and 33% of Estrela's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Farense and Estrela matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Farense's recent matches and 50% of Estrela's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Farense's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Farense and Estrela finished level at 0-0 at Estádio de São Lúis, Regular Season - 14, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Farense 1.60 xG and Estrela 1.22 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Farense fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Estrela landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Farense attack 0.99 / defence 1.06 against Estrela attack 0.90 / defence 1.06, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Farense 46% | Draw 25% | Estrela 29%, with Farense to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Farense 62%, Estrela 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Farense's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Estrela's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Farense 1.31 PPG, Estrela 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Farense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Estrela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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