Farense 0-1 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Farense at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Farense face GIL Vicente.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Farense host GIL Vicente at Estádio de São Lúis in Primeira Liga (matchday 14). Kick-off is Saturday 14 December 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Farense have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Farense have gone 4W 0D 6L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
GIL Vicente — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
GIL Vicente's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Farense at 0.90 PPG versus GIL Vicente's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Farense have won 1, GIL Vicente 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 12 May 2024, ended Farense 0–2 GIL Vicente — a GIL Vicente win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Farense in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
GIL Vicente in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Farense 53% versus GIL Vicente 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Farense 49% | GIL Vicente 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Farense 1.55 xG and GIL Vicente 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Farense attack 0.772 / defence 1.091 | GIL Vicente attack 0.919 / defence 1.422. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.089. Farense's attack rating of 0.772 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.55. GIL Vicente's defence rating of 1.422 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Farense's projected output up. Data: built from Farense's last 47 games and GIL Vicente's last 47.
Result probabilities: Farense 48% | Draw 25% | GIL Vicente 27%. Fair-value odds: Farense 2.09 | Draw 3.94 | GIL Vicente 3.73. Farense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Farense as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Farense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Farense 50% (last 10 home games) | GIL Vicente 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Farense vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 14 | Venue: Estádio de São Lúis • Kick-off: Saturday 14 December 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Farense 48% | Draw 25% | GIL Vicente 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Farense 1.55 / GIL Vicente 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Farense attack 0.772 / def 1.091 | GIL Vicente attack 0.919 / def 1.422 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Farense (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Farense xG
Expected Goals
1.09
GIL Vicente xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Farense vs GIL Vicente FAQs
What time does Farense vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Farense vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 14 December 2024 at Estádio de São Lúis.
What was the final score in Farense vs GIL Vicente?
Farense 0 - 1 GIL Vicente.
Where is Farense vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Lúis.
What competition is Farense vs GIL Vicente part of?
Farense vs GIL Vicente is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 14) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Farense vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Farense a 48% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Farense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Farense vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Farense and GIL Vicente will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Farense vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Farense's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against GIL Vicente's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, GIL Vicente's attack versus Farense's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Farense's last 47 games and GIL Vicente's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Farense Win
48%
2.09
25%
3.94
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Farense xG
Total xG
2.64
1.09
GIL Vicente xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
16%
6.23
6%
17.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Farense vs GIL Vicente Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Farense vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Farense and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Farense and 1.09 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Farense vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Farense come into this having played 47 games, going 12W 10D 25L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-D.
On the other side, GIL Vicente sit at 1.04 PPG from 47 outings (12W 13D 22L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Farense on 0.98 PPG, GIL Vicente on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Farense's home form reads 8W 4D 11L across their last 23 home games, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, GIL Vicente have taken 0.57 points per game from their last 23 away games (3W 4D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of GIL Vicente's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Farense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Farense are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.23 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Farense
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
Farense (Home) vs GIL Vicente (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Farense
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
❓ Farense vs GIL Vicente Form FAQs
What form are Farense and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Farense have gone 12W 10D 25L in their last 47 games (0.98 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 12W 13D 22L in their last 47 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Farense at home or GIL Vicente away?
Farense's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Farense at home: 1.22 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from January 2024. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent in our data was on 26 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
GIL Vicente have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Farense's record when hosting GIL Vicente specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Farense
0
Draws
3
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Farense vs GIL Vicente H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and GIL Vicente?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Farense have won 1, GIL Vicente have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Farense and GIL Vicente last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 April 2025: GIL Vicente 1-0 Farense.
Who has won more matches between Farense and GIL Vicente?
GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Farense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Farense 48%, GIL Vicente 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Farense) and 61% (GIL Vicente). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Farense keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Farense have failed to score in 26% of games; GIL Vicente in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Farense home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Farense vs GIL Vicente Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Farense and GIL Vicente matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Farense's recent matches and 48% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Farense and GIL Vicente matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Farense's matches and 61% of GIL Vicente's.
Do Farense and GIL Vicente matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Farense's recent matches and 78% of GIL Vicente's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as GIL Vicente defy the odds to beat Farense 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIL Vicente beat Farense 0-1 at Estádio de São Lúis, Regular Season - 14, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Farense 1.55 xG and GIL Vicente 1.09 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Farense fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Farense attack 0.77 / defence 1.09 against GIL Vicente attack 0.92 / defence 1.42, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Farense 48% | Draw 25% | GIL Vicente 27%, with Farense to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual GIL Vicente win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Farense 49%, GIL Vicente 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Farense's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Farense 0.98 PPG, GIL Vicente 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIL Vicente win broke the near-deadlock. Farense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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