Famalicao 1-2 Farense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Famalicao at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Famalicao vs Farense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 15 as Famalicao welcome Farense to Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 December 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Famalicao stand at 1W 7D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
Farense — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Farense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Farense have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Famalicao 1.00 PPG, Farense 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Famalicao, 0 for Farense and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Famalicao in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Farense in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 52% versus Farense 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 44% | Farense 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 0.99 xG and Farense 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.717 / defence 0.856 | Farense attack 0.751 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.103. Famalicao's attack strength of 0.717 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 Famalicao games / 48 Farense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 41% | Draw 34% | Farense 26%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 2.44 | Draw 2.94 | Farense 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.70. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.70 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Farense's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Famalicao as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Famalicao offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.70 combined xG gives a 24% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Famalicao 40% | Farense 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Farense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Dec 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 41% | Draw 34% | Farense 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 32% | xG Famalicao 0.99 / Farense 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.717 / def 0.856 | Farense attack 0.751 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.413 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Farense xG
32%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Farense kick off?
Famalicao vs Farense kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 21 December 2024 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Farense?
Famalicao 1 - 2 Farense.
Where is Famalicao vs Farense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Farense part of?
Famalicao vs Farense is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Farense?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 41% chance of winning, Farense a 26% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Farense?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Famalicao and Farense will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Farense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Farense?
Record (2 meetings): Famalicao 1W | Draws 1 | Farense 0W.
What form are Famalicao and Farense in?
Famalicao (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Farense (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Famalicao's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Farense's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. The same calculation in reverse, Farense's attack versus Famalicao's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 20.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.4%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
41%
2.45
34%
2.97
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.1%
Home win
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Famalicao xG
Total xG
1.70
0.71
Farense xG
2.45
41%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.14
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
10%
10.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.3 | 13.0 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.1 | 12.8 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Farense?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.0%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Farense expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Famalicao and 0.71 for Farense, a combined total of 1.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Farense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Famalicao's recent record stands at 14W 19D 15L from 48 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Farense, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 26L across 48 games — 0.96 PPG, with L-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Farense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Famalicao on 1.27 PPG, Farense on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Famalicao have managed 8W 10D 6L from 24 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Farense's away record stands at 4W 6D 14L across 24 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Famalicao come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Famalicao are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Farense are on 1.10 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Blended
Farense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Farense in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 14W 19D 15L in their last 48 games (1.27 PPG), while Farense have gone 12W 10D 26L in their last 48 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Farense away?
Famalicao's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.42 PPG; Farense away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Famalicao and Farense runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Farense have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Famalicao's record when hosting Farense specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Famalicao
1
Draws
2
Farense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Farense?
From 4 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 1, Farense have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Farense last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Farense 2-1 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Farense?
Farense have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Farense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 50%, Farense 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Famalicao) and 46% (Farense).
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Famalicao have failed to score in 29% of games; Farense in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Farense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Farense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Famalicao's recent matches and 58% of Farense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Farense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Famalicao's recent games and 46% of Farense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and Farense tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Farense in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Farense defy the odds to beat Famalicao 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Farense beat Famalicao 1-2 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 15, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 0.99 xG and Farense 0.71 xG, a combined 1.70. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Farense outscored their 0.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.72 / defence 0.86 against Farense attack 0.75 / defence 0.97, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 41% | Draw 34% | Farense 26%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Farense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 44%, Farense 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Farense's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.27 PPG, Farense 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Farense win broke the near-deadlock. Famalicao (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Farense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.