Estoril 0-2 Casa Pia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Estoril at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estoril vs Casa Pia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Estoril and Casa Pia meet at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 December 2024 at 20:30 UTC.
Form
Estoril (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estoril's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Casa Pia have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Casa Pia have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Estoril against 1.40 for Casa Pia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Estoril, 0 for Casa Pia and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Estoril half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Casa Pia half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 53% versus Casa Pia 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 60% | Casa Pia 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.30 xG and Casa Pia 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.934 / defence 1.000 | Casa Pia attack 0.924 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.062. Data: 47 Estoril games / 47 Casa Pia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 44% | Draw 28% | Casa Pia 28%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Casa Pia 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Estoril at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estoril if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Estoril 30% | Casa Pia 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Casa Pia | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Dec 2024, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 44% | Draw 28% | Casa Pia 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Estoril 1.30 / Casa Pia 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.934 / def 1.000 | Casa Pia attack 0.924 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Estoril (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Casa Pia xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs Casa Pia kick off?
Estoril vs Casa Pia kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 15 December 2024 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Casa Pia?
Estoril 0 - 2 Casa Pia.
Where is Estoril vs Casa Pia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Casa Pia part of?
Estoril vs Casa Pia is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Casa Pia?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 44% chance of winning, Casa Pia a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Casa Pia?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Estoril and Casa Pia will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs Casa Pia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Casa Pia?
Record (4 meetings): Estoril 2W | Draws 2 | Casa Pia 0W.
What form are Estoril and Casa Pia in?
Estoril (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Casa Pia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Estoril's attack rating (0.93) and Casa Pia's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Casa Pia's attack (0.92x) against Estoril's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
44%
2.27
28%
3.57
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.29
0.98
Casa Pia xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
8%
13.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.0 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Casa Pia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Estoril and Casa Pia expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Estoril and 0.98 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Casa Pia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Estoril come into this having played 47 games, going 12W 11D 24L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-D. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Casa Pia sit at 1.11 PPG from 47 outings (13W 13D 21L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Estoril against 1.11 for Casa Pia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Estoril's home form reads 10W 3D 10L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Estoril are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Casa Pia have taken 1.26 points per game from 23 outings (8W 5D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Estoril are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Casa Pia are on 1.04 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Blended
Casa Pia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and Casa Pia in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 12W 11D 24L in their last 47 games (1.00 PPG), while Casa Pia have gone 13W 13D 21L in their last 47 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Casa Pia away?
Estoril's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.43 PPG; Casa Pia away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Estoril won 4-0 on 10 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estoril have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Casa Pia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Estoril
4
Draws
1
Casa Pia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Casa Pia?
From 8 meetings on record, Estoril have won 3, Casa Pia have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Casa Pia last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Estoril 0-0 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Casa Pia?
Estoril have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Estoril see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 39%, Casa Pia 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Estoril) and 56% (Casa Pia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Estoril keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Estoril have failed to score in 26% of games; Casa Pia in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Casa Pia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play Casa Pia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Estoril's recent matches and 48% of Casa Pia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estoril vs Casa Pia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Estoril's matches and 56% of Casa Pia's.
Do Estoril and Casa Pia tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Casa Pia in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Casa Pia cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Estoril.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Casa Pia beat Estoril 0-2 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 14, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.30 xG and Casa Pia 0.98 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Estoril fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Casa Pia outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.93 / defence 1.00 against Casa Pia attack 0.92 / defence 0.99, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 44% | Draw 28% | Casa Pia 28%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Casa Pia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 60%, Casa Pia 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Casa Pia's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estoril 1.00 PPG, Casa Pia 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Casa Pia win broke the near-deadlock. Estoril (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Casa Pia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.