Casa Pia 1-3 Farense – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Farense at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Casa Pia vs Farense encounter.

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Match Analysis

Casa Pia host Farense at Estádio Pina Manique in Primeira Liga (matchday 18). Kick-off is Saturday 20 January 2024 at 18:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Casa Pia — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Casa Pia at home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Farense stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

On the road, Farense have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 away fixtures (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.88 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Farense are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Casa Pia have won 1, Farense 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 12 Aug 2023, ended Casa Pia 3–0 Farense — a Casa Pia win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Casa Pia in-play and half-time data (last 17 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 38% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Farense in-play and half-time data (last 17 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 41% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 47% versus Farense 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 41% | Farense 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.10 xG and Farense 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.628 / defence 1.078 | Farense attack 0.824 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.307. Casa Pia's attack rating of 0.628 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.10. Data: built from Casa Pia's last 51 games and Farense's last 17.

Result probabilities: Casa Pia 34% | Draw 29% | Farense 37%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 2.97 | Draw 3.39 | Farense 2.71. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Farense at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Farense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Casa Pia 50% (last 10 home games) | Farense 50% (last 8 away games).

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