Benfica 3-0 Estoril – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (78%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Benfica face Estoril.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 15 as Benfica welcome Estoril to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica. Kick-off is set for Monday 23 December 2024 at 18:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benfica stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica this season: 10W 0D 0L from 10 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Estoril have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estoril away from home this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Benfica are in the better shape of the two on current Primeira Liga data — 1.60 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Benfica have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 5 past contests while Estoril have managed just 0 wins.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2024, ended 3–1 with Benfica winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Benfica and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Benfica trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Estoril trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 46% versus Estoril 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 58% | Estoril 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 2.63 xG and Estoril 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.680 / defence 0.720 | Estoril attack 0.901 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.109. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.680 — their λ of 2.63 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Benfica's defence rating of 0.720 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Benfica games / 48 Estoril games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 78% | Draw 14% | Estoril 8%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.28 | Draw 7.14 | Estoril 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (78%) — a 70pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.35 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Benfica 40% | Estoril 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Estoril | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Monday 23 Dec 2024, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 78% | Draw 14% | Estoril 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 48% | xG Benfica 2.63 / Estoril 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.680 / def 0.720 | Estoril attack 0.901 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Benfica (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.63
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Estoril xG
48%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Estoril kick off?
Benfica vs Estoril kicked off at 18:45 on Monday 23 December 2024 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Estoril?
Benfica 3 - 0 Estoril.
Where is Benfica vs Estoril being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs Estoril part of?
Benfica vs Estoril is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Estoril?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 78% chance of winning, Estoril a 8% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Estoril?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Benfica and Estoril will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Estoril have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Estoril?
Record (5 meetings): Benfica 5W | Draws 0 | Estoril 0W.
What form are Benfica and Estoril in?
Benfica (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Estoril (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Benfica's attack at 1.68x the league average against Estoril's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 2.63 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Estoril's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
78%
1.28
14%
7.13
8%
12.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.63
Benfica xG
Total xG
3.35
0.72
Estoril xG
1.28
78%
Home win
7.13
14%
Draw
12.77
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
7%
13.89
Win to Nil
38%
2.63
1%
177.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 8.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.6 | 7.7 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Estoril?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Benfica and Estoril expected to score?
The model projects 2.63 expected goals for Benfica and 0.72 for Estoril, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Estoril?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Benfica come into this having played 48 games, going 36W 7D 5L for 2.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Estoril sit at 0.98 PPG from 48 outings (12W 11D 25L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.42 PPG clear of Estoril — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Benfica's home form reads 21W 2D 0L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.83 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.40 PPG overall — Benfica are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Estoril have taken 0.48 points per game from 23 outings (1W 8D 14L). That's a step down from their 0.98 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Estoril's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Benfica are averaging 2.31 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Estoril are on 1.27 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Blended
Estoril
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Estoril in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 36W 7D 5L in their last 48 games (2.40 PPG), while Estoril have gone 12W 11D 25L in their last 48 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Estoril away?
Benfica's home record (2.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.83 PPG; Estoril away: 0.48 PPG.
Have Benfica or Estoril been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Estoril in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Benfica have taken the last 10 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2022, when Benfica won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benfica's record when hosting Estoril specifically: 6W 0D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
10
Benfica
0
Draws
0
Estoril
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Estoril?
From 10 meetings on record, Benfica have won 10, Estoril have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Estoril last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Benfica 2-1 Estoril.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Estoril?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 44%, Estoril 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Benfica and 65% for Estoril. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Estoril in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Estoril away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Estoril?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Benfica's games and 70% of Estoril's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benfica vs Estoril usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Benfica's matches and 65% of Estoril's.
Do Benfica and Estoril tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Estoril in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benfica run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Estoril.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Estoril 3-0 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 15, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 2.63 xG and Estoril 0.72 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.68 / defence 0.72 against Estoril attack 0.90 / defence 1.15, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 78% | Draw 14% | Estoril 8%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 78%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 58%, Estoril 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Estoril's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 0.98. Form held, and they took the win. Estoril (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.